In a rematch from the 2025 WNBA Finals, the Las Vegas Aces will host the Phoenix Mercury at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena on ABC.
The Mercury hope for a better showing in the regular-season opener after getting swept by the Aces in last year’s finals. However, Las Vegas is a 7.5-point favorite after adding depth to a team that has won three titles in four years.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: Saturday, May 9
- Mercury +7.5 (-110)
Based on the updated WNBA odds, I’m taking the points with Phoenix (+7.5) for my Mercury vs. Aces prediction on Saturday.
As mentioned when I took the over on the Mercury’s win total, they are flying under the radar this season. The loss of Satou Sabally has dropped this team from a finals participant to a fringe playoff contender in terms of market power ratings.
But I simply have too much faith in the foundational floor of Alyssa Thomas and this Mercury front office.
Thomas, who hasn’t missed the postseason in a decade, is coming off the best year of her career. She finished third in MVP voting, averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game.
Despite the loss of Sabally, Phoenix has a dynamic duo between Thomas and Kahleah Copper. And I trust this front office to find undervalued players.
Last year, Monique Akoa Makani started 40 games as a rookie guard, and Kathryn Westbeld was a valuable 3-and-D player as an undrafted rookie. Natasha Mack had the best defensive campaign of her career. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phoenix found more underrated talent this season.
The Aces, meanwhile, ended the year on a heater, going on a 16-game win streak to close out the regular season. But it’s important to remember that they hovered around .500 for the first half of the year.
I’d be surprised if the Aces got off to another slow start, but there is a chance they’ll pace themselves, focusing on playing their best basketball in the fall. That’s especially true in Game 1, with Las Vegas having a back-to-back to start the season.
Give me the points with an underrated Phoenix team.
Prediction: Mercury +7.5 (-110)
Mercury vs. Aces Odds for Saturday, May 9
- Mercury spread: +7.5
- Aces spread: -7.5
- Total: 167.5
Visit the online sportsbook for updated WNBA odds throughout the year. From futures like championship odds, MVP odds, or Rookie of the Year odds, to in-season betting with spreads, parlays, and prop bets, there’s something for everyone.
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