The Phoenix Mercury have a win total of 23.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook for the 2026 WNBA season.
After winning 27 games in 2025, Phoenix is expected to take a step back. But is the WNBA odds market discounting what makes the Mercury special again?
Phoenix Mercury Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 23.5 wins: -115
- Under 23.5 wins: -115
Phoenix Mercury Win Total Prediction
- Wait to bet over 23.5 wins
I’m interested in the over for the Mercury’s win total (23.5), but I think there is a chance that this mark could drop a bit before opening night.
The Mercury aren’t viewed as an obvious playoff contender after finishing 27-17 last year and reaching the WNBA Finals. I’m higher on Phoenix than most, and even I only ranked this team sixth in my preseason WNBA power rankings.
Projecting a step back makes sense after the Mercury lost Satou Sabally to the New York Liberty.
But be careful not to discount them too much. They still have Alyssa Thomas, who hasn’t missed the postseason in a decade, and a front office that finds hidden talent better than anyone else in the league.
Thomas thrived in her first season with the Mercury. She averaged a career-high 9.2 assists per game, thanks to the spacing of Phoenix’s offense. Thomas also added 15.4 points and 8.8 rebounds, finishing third in MVP voting. Thomas has finished fifth or better in the MVP race for the last four seasons.
Kahleah Copper played just 28 games last year, but she should return to her All-Star form as the No. 2 option.
However, Phoenix’s real advantage comes from its depth behind the stars. This team’s scouting department has shown the ability to find some real gems.
Monique Akoa Makani started 40 games as a rookie guard last year. Kathryn Westbeld proved to be a valuable 3-and-D player as an undrafted rookie. Natasha Mack had the best defensive campaign of her career in Phoenix, averaging 1.5 blocks per game.
All three players are back, though Westbeld is out for the year with an ACL injury. Still, I’m expecting Phoenix to find more underrated players this year. The Mercury landed international prospects Ines Pitarch-Granel and Eszter Ratkai in the 2026 WNBA Draft.
I’m comfortable blindly trusting the Mercury at this point.
Visit the online sportsbook for WNBA betting opportunities throughout the year. With prop bets, parlays, futures, and more, there’s something for every basketball fan.
If you don’t have a BetMGM account, check your eligibility for a sportsbook welcome offer, one of many sportsbook promos for new and existing customers.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
