- Argentina is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Austria.
- Since the 2024 Euros, Austria has lost both matches against top-five ELO teams.
- My Argentina vs Austria prediction is Austria Under 0.5 Goals (+110).
Argentina and Austria, both of whom have won, meet on Monday in Dallas for Group G play.
World Cup holders Argentina cruised to a 3-0 win over Algeria in Kansas City. Lionel Messi scored a hat trick to set the early Golden Boot pace as Argentina covered the spread.
Austria followed it with a 3-1 win over Jordan to move second in the group. Ralf Rangnick’s side arrives at the Argentina match winners of four straight fixtures.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Argentina vs Austria prediction.
Argentina vs Austria: World Cup Odds
Austria vs Argentina Prediction
Based on Austria’s weak attacking metrics against Jordan and Argentina’s stout defensive record, my Argentina vs Austria prediction is Austria Under 0.5 Goals (+110).
I left Austria vs Jordan rather unimpressed with the Austria attack. Although they scored three goals as a 1.5-goal favorite, the quality of chances left so much to be desired.
Outside a penalty kick in the 102nd minute, Austria created a mere 0.9 expected goals and 0.7 post-shot xG against the Jordanian defense.
Now the UEFA outfit has to switch roles and play as an underdog against a superior defense.
Argentina held Algeria to zero shots on target on Tuesday in Kansas City.
While Austria offers a slight upgrade in competition – 20th vs. 33rd in ELO rankings – we’ve seen Argentina keep better opponents under this benchmark.
The requirement? Argentina plays its best defensively with Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero.
Before Matchday 1, their last competitive match together was the 2024 Copa America Final. Argentina kept Colombia under 0.5 goals in that match, allowing 0.6 psxG in regular time.
At the 2022 World Cup, Argentina consistently performed well against European sides. It kept Poland and Croatia under this benchmark while conceding to the Netherlands and France.
I place Austria closer to the former group than the latter in attack. Those two teams combined for only 0.42 post-shot xG against the Argentinian defense.
Given those factors, I predict Austria regresses from three goals to none against a superior unit.
World’s Game Early Payout
If your team goes up by two goals in a World’s Game match, you win immediately!
Log in for more info.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
