Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Argentina vs Egypt prediction for their round of 16 meeting in Atlanta.Â
Argentina vs Egypt: World Cup Odds
Argentina vs Egypt Prediction
Based on the fact both teams played 120 minutes in the round of 32 along with Argentina’s offensive liabilities, my Argentina vs Egypt prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (-120).
Here’s your friendly reminder that, even though Argentina vs Cape Verde finished 3-2, markets are graded at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
It leads me to believe bettors see a similar script from regular time against Egypt. Argentina, wholly reliant on an aging Lionel Messi, struggles to create chances.
Before a two-goal explosion in extra time, Argentina struggled to generate opportunities with the ball. The current World Cup holders finished on 1.67 xG in regular time against Cape Verde.
Not once through four World Cup matches has Argentina cleared 1.7 non-penalty expected goals. That record comes despite facing some pretty soft competition.
The same can be said of Egypt, but we at least know they’re capable of defending decent attacks in a low block. On Matchday 1 against Belgium, the defense allowed 1.35 xG.
They’ll also get a tired Argentina attack that controlled 64% possession against Cape Verde. After playing 120 minutes in Miami, Argentina likely sees a slow attacking start.
At the same time, Argentina ran pretty unlucky defensively against Cape Verde. Two goals look bad on paper, but Cape Verde’s equalizer down 1-0 registered a 0.05 xG rating.
Across all 120 minutes, Cape Verde created only 0.45 xG and 1.42 post-shot xG. Their second tally in extra time measured as a 0.03 xG/0.68 post-shot xG attempt.
Egypt created only 5.1 expected goals in its first four tournament matches. Just over 37% of that output came in a singular match against New Zealand.
They too will start this match off a penalty shootout against Australia. That factor could help inform some positive defensive regression for Argentina off an uncharacteristic showing.
Accordingly, I predict bettors see another low-scoring Argentina tournament match come the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
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