- Argentina is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against Jordan.
- Argentina has surrendered only one shot on target through two matches.
- My Argentina vs Jordan prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (+130).
Argentina will close out World Cup group play in Dallas against Jordan.
Lionel Messi scored two goals against Austria in a 2-0 win by the World Cup holders. The win, along with Jordan’s loss to Algeria, handed Argentina a group victory.
Jordan held the lead against Algeria at halftime. However, a pair of second-half goals from Algeria relegated the World Cup debutants to a second straight loss.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Argentina vs Jordan prediction.
Argentina vs Jordan: World Cup Odds
Jordan vs Argentina Prediction
Based on the lack of motivation for Argentina in this match and their stout defensive record, my Argentina vs Jordan prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (+130).
My expectation is that Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni will rotate out some key players. Argentina already secured a group win and lacks any motivation to run up the score.
It should take pressure off the weakest unit on the field: Jordan’s defense. At the same time, I question how the Jordan attack will create against a potent Argentina defense.
The 2022 World Cup winners surrendered only one shot on target worth 0.05 post-shot xG COMBINED against Algeria and Austria. Jordan rates as the easiest opponent of the three.
Jordan scored against both Austria and Algeria, but it ran pretty lucky in the process. The team scored twice off only 1.1 expected goals, including 0.46 against Austria.
Now it gets the steepest challenge of the World Cup group stage so far. Against comparable opposition, Jordan struggled to create chances.
In its final pre-tournament friendly against Colombia, Jordan failed to score while posting only five touches in the opposing penalty area.
The last factor I’m considering here is the prior game states for Jordan.
The team equalized against Austria and took the lead against Algeria. It likely led to those teams pushing harder for results as a lofty favorite.
Barring a complete surprise, I’ll be shocked if Jordan finds a goal against Argentina. It likely leads to Argentina taking a lead and sitting on it to preserve its legs.
Those factors lead me to predict this match stays under 2.5 goals at a higher frequency than these odds suggest.
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