- Australia is predicted to be a 0.5-goal underdog against Turkey.
- Turkey is unbeaten in its last six matches, last losing against Spain.
- My Australia vs Turkey prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
Group D nations Turkey and Australia will begin their World Cup from Vancouver.
Turkey, a potential World Cup sleeper pick, arrives at the tournament in strong form. Only once in their last seven matches have they dropped all three points – that came against Spain.
Australia will hope to build off its 2022 World Cup success. The Socceroos reached the round of 16, the first time since 2006 they advanced past the group stage.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Australia vs Turkey prediction.
Australia vs Turkey: World Cup Odds
Turkey vs Australia Prediction
Based on Australia’s defensive record against counter-attacking teams and Turkey’s offensive inconsistency with the ball, my Australia vs Turkey prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
Read More: What Percent of World Cup Matches Finish Under 2.5 Goals?Â
Part of me wonders how the Australian defense handles this match. On paper, Turkey possesses a strong group of attackers.
However, looming over this match is the status of Hakan Calhanoglu. A creative midfielder for Turkey and Inter Milan, Calhanoglu’s absence could impact Turkey’s offensive ceiling.
The Australia matches I’m using to evaluate this match are qualifying fixtures against Japan. Both Japan and Turkey perform better as underdogs due to their counterattacking strength.
Australia produced strong defensive performances against the Blue Samurai. Tony Popovic’s side kept Japan under 1.5 goals in both qualifying meetings.
The defense looked unquestionably better at home – Japan notched 34 box entries on home turf – but the defensive structure remains encouraging.
The common thread in both matches? Australia struggled to get forward in attack. Over two meetings with Japan, the Socceroos managed only 13 box entries, scoring once.
For Turkey’s defense, the match offers a step down from their usual UEFA competition. But their recent matches against inferior opponents yielded unimpressive attacking results.
In matches against Bulgaria, Romania and Kosovo, Turkey averaged 1.64 non-penalty expected goals per 90. By non-penalty post-shot xG, the average moves to 0.91 per 90.
Add in the extreme travel for Turkey from Arizona to Vancouver, and I predict the match finishes under this benchmark.
Australia vs Turkey Public Betting Data
| Moneyline | % of Bets | % of Money |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 69% | 92% |
| Draw | 11% | 2% |
| Australia | 20% | 6% |
Place a World Cup Bet at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier destination for online sports betting during the World Cup.
You can view updated odds and place a World Cup bet on match winner, over/under totals, player props, and more as the world’s best players compete.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus — to start betting. And don’t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.
World’s Game Early Payout
If your team goes up by two goals in a World’s Game match, you win immediately!
Log in for more info.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
