- Belgium is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Egypt.
- Belgium conceded at least one goal in four of its eight qualifying matches.
- My Belgium vs Egypt prediction is the Egypt Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+320).
Group G play opens from Seattle as Kevin De Bruyne’s Belgium faces Mo Salah’s Egypt.
Belgium will arrive at Monday’s match in good form. Roberto Martinez led the UEFA side to four wins and a draw over its last five matches, including two straight victories. Not since March 2025 has Belgium dropped all three points.
Egypt fell 2-1 to Brazil in their final pre-tournament friendly. The loss ended a four-match unbeaten run, including a 0-0 draw against World Cup favorites Spain.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Belgium vs Egypt prediction.
Belgium vs Egypt: World Cup Odds
Egypt vs Belgium Prediction
Based on Belgium’s questionable defensive record against inferior competition and the market’s price, my Belgium vs Egypt prediction is Egypt Over 1.5 Goals (+320).
It’s my opinion the price attached to this market paints an inaccurate picture of the Belgian defense.
The attack remains integral to Belgium’s squad. De Bruyne, along with Jeremy Doku, Romelu Lukaku and Charles De Ketelaere form one of the best attacking quartets in the tournament.
But I refuse to place trust in this defense. Over eight qualifying matches, the unit kept four clean sheets. However, the venue and opponent must get consideration.
The team kept two clean sheets against Liechtenstein (home and away). The defense also kept clean sheets at home against Kazakhstan and North Macedonia.
I’m using Belgium’s matches against Wales as the measuring stick for this fixture. Irrespective of venue, Belgium’s defense struggled in both fixtures.
Wales scored five goals over two legs, clearing 1.5 goals in both games. From a metrics standpoint, the UEFA side generated 1.55 xG per 90 and 1.71 post-shot xG per 90.
It’s alarming to see that record, even before you consider Egypt’s attacking strength.
I question how the defense holds up in this match, but I’m relatively confident the attack scores at least once. In addition to Salah, Egypt deploys Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush in attack.
By implied probability, the odds suggest Egypt clears this benchmark only 26 times for every 100 match simulations.
I’m unsure if they actually clear this number, but it’s my belief they overtake it at a higher rate than these odds suggest.
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