- Brazil is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Morocco.
- Including qualifiers, Morocco has won each of its last eight World Cup fixtures.
- My Brazil vs Morocco prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125).
Global heavyweights Brazil begin their World Cup campaign against 2022 sleeper Morocco.
The South American nation has endured some recent struggles before the World Cup. However, they’ll enter this match owning a recent 2-0 friendly win against fellow African side Senegal.
Morocco reached the final at a controversial Africa Cup of Nations. The title was later awarded to them after Senegal abandoned the pitch prior to an extra-time win.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Brazil vs Morocco prediction.
Brazil vs Morocco: World Cup Odds
Morocco vs Brazil Prediction
Based on Morocco’s lack of attacking prowess at AFCON and defensive acumen, my Brazil vs Morocco prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125).
Read More: What Percent of World Cup Matches Finish Under 2.5 Goals?
The biggest unknown in this match is how Morocco’s defense handles the Brazil attack.
Carlo Ancelotti brings some of the world’s best strikers and wingers to the tournament. Yet we’ve seen them struggle to break down these pragmatic African sides.
Tunisia held Brazil to a 1-1 draw in a friendly last year. Despite attempting 21 shots, Brazil found the target only three times. Their only goal came via a penalty kick.
Brazil played Senegal before that fixture and looked markedly better in a 2-0 win. However, it coincided with Brazil amassing only 47% possession.
Against Tunisia, they maintained possession for 74% of the match. The shift likely contributes to their superior attacking metrics, doubling their shots on target.
Expect the match against Morocco to look like the one against Tunisia. At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco played with a minority possession share in all but one match.
Where I’m most confident is in my distrust of the Morocco attack. Only twice since June 2023 has Morocco played matches against top-30 FIFA teams.
Those fixtures came at the AFCON semifinals and final. Against Nigeria, Morocco generated only 0.66 expected goals in regular time. Against Senegal: 0.72 from non-penalty situations.
While Brazil allowing three goals to Japan and two to France is concerning, this match likely offers a reprieve for the defense.
Those factors lead me to predict a low-scoring fixture at MetLife Stadium.
Brazil vs Morocco Public Betting Data
| Moneyline | % of Bets | % of Money |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 68% | 81% |
| Draw | 10% | 5% |
| Morocco | 22% | 14% |
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