- Brazil is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against Scotland.
- Brazil has won four of its last five World Cup group matches against UEFA nations.
- My Brazil vs Scotland prediction is Scotland Under 0.5 Goals (-118).
Brazil will try to secure a Group C win as lofty favorites against Scotland on Matchday 3.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side captured a 3-0 win over Haiti in Philadelphia, improving to four points. Currently, Brazil and Morocco sit level on points with Brazil holding a superior goal difference.
Scotland fell 1-0 to Morocco on Matchday 2 after conceding early. Steve Clarke’s team is guaranteed to reach the round of 32, but Scotland needs a win to leap out of third place.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Brazil vs Scotland prediction.
Brazil vs Scotland: World Cup Odds
Scotland vs Brazil Prediction
Based on Scotland’s poor attacking metrics against Morocco and their lack of familiarity with heat and humidity, my Brazil vs Scotland prediction is Scotland Under 0.5 Goals (-118).
Scotland moved from a 4-4-2 against Haiti to a 5-4-1 formation against Morocco. The resulting attacking metrics left so much to be desired.
The Tartan Army failed to put a shot on target against Morocco. For the entire match, Scotland generated only 0.5 expected goals and a single big scoring chance.
Now they’re taking on Brazil in hot and humid Miami. A 6 p.m. kickoff on Wednesday calls for temperatures in the high 80s with projected 75% humidity.
Generally speaking, high temperatures see chances for both teams regress. Even if that weren’t the case, Scotland faces a strong Brazil defense.
Although the unit conceded on Matchday 1 against Morocco, Brazil ran slightly unlucky against its underlying metrics.
Morocco scored one goal off only three shots on target. Those three efforts amounted to 0.74 post-shot expected goals, per FotMob.
A 0.27 psxG chance came in the 99th minute as both teams were chasing all three points. Morocco’s goal came off a chance worth only 0.27 post-shot xG.
Scotland, as it showed on Matchday 2 against Morocco, offers significantly less attacking threat than Morocco.
Since March, Scotland scored under 1.5 goals in four of six matches. Their successes came against Curacao and Bolivia with three goalless efforts against Morocco, Japan and Ivory Coast.
Brazil offers defensive strength north of the latter trio. Pair that matchup with the weather and I predict Scotland fails to score for the second straight match.
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