Based on World Cup odds, Portugal striker Cristiano Ronaldo is to win the Golden Boot.
Ronaldo still seeks his first World Cup Golden Boot with Portugal. He came close in 2018, scoring four goals for Portugal. It placed him in a five-way tie for second place.
The 41-year-old claimed a Golden Boot award at the 2020 European Championships. In UEFA’s continental competition, he scored five goals to lead all players.
Cristiano Ronaldo Golden Boot Prediction & Analysis
Based on Portugal’s favorable group draw and potential for a deep run at the 2026 World Cup, I predict Cristiano Ronaldo offers a viable candidacy to win the Golden Boot.
So much of this prediction hinges on whether Portugal wins Group K. Anything lower than second would shock me, but the group winner likely comes down to Portugal vs. Colombia.
Colombia offers extreme volatility. Recent results leave so much to be desired, but Colombia simultaneously reached the Copa America final and beat Argentina in qualifying.
If Portugal wins their group, a clear path exists to the semifinals. Assuming odds hold, a first-place finish puts them on a side with England, Brazil and Argentina.
A second-place finish likely earns them France, Spain and the Netherlands. The former offers a significantly easier path based on Elo ratings.
An increase in matches provides more chances for Ronaldo to ratchet up his goal tally. Plus, Portugal benefits from a group draw against bad Colombia and Uzbekistan defenses.
Most of the previous winners racked up goals in a hurry during the group stage. Four years ago, Kylian Mbappe scored five of eight in the group stage.
Eight years ago, Harry Kane scored five of six in the opening three matches.
Ronaldo, who serves as Portugal’s penalty taker and free-kick specialist, has the opportunity to produce a similar record.
At the same time, a second-place finish in Group K likely correlates with Portugal’s attack struggling. It also places them against superior defenses in the knockout round.
Lastly, support has come in for Ronaldo to win. He opened at +2200 to win this award and has seen his odds shorten ahead of the tournament.
Those factors lead me to consider CR7 as a potential Golden Boot winner.
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