Croatia vs Ghana Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Croatia and Ghana meet for Group L position on Saturday in Philadelphia.

The former earned all three points on Matchday 2 against Panama in a 1-0 win. It leaves the 2018 finalists on three points, one behind Ghana.

The African outfit resigned England to a 0-0 draw in Boston on Tuesday. Now, Ghana only needs a point to finish second in Group L.

Check out the World Cup odds and my Croatia vs Ghana prediction.

Croatia vs Ghana: World Cup Odds

Ghana vs Croatia Prediction

Based on each team’s motivation for the match and Ghana’s stout defensive record, my Croatia vs Ghana prediction is the First Half Under 0.5 Goals (+165).

I left England vs Ghana rather impressed with Ghana’s defense. Against a superior attack to Croatia, Ghana held England to 1.3 expected goals, despite recording only 20% possession.

In the opening half, Ghana limited the Three Lions to 0.3 xG and zero shots on target.

Now they get a Croatia attack that posted abysmal metrics early against Panama. By comparison, the CONCACAF nation offers less resistance than Ghana.

Croatia attempted only two shots inside the first 45 minutes for a cumulative 0.05 xG. Unsurprisingly, neither attempt challenged the goalkeeper.

At the same time, Ghana’s attack does not scare me in the slightest. Against Panama, they failed to attempt a first-half shot as a +135 favorite.

Only one attempt cleared 0.1 post-shot xG: their winner in the 95th minute.

Motivation plays a factor in this match as well. For Ghana, only a point is needed to secure second. They can still win the group, but they’d need a win by multiple goals.

It should lead to a more cautious approach early, as Croatia dominates possession to try and overtake Ghana for second.

But I question if the Croatia attack is built to sustain that level. Accordingly, I predict we see a goalless first half at a higher frequency than the 37.7% implied chance suggests.