- Ecuador is predicted to be a 2.5-goal favorite against Curacao.
- Ecuador’s 19-match unbeaten streak ended on Matchday 1 with a 1-0 loss.
- My Ecuador vs Curacao prediction is the Total Under 3.5 Goals (-145).
Ecuador will try to get back on track in Group F as heavy favorites against Curacao.
The South American outfit fell 1-0 in Philadelphia against the Ivory Coast. With the loss, Ecuador saw its 19-match unbeaten streak come to an end.
Curacao suffered a 7-1 defeat against Germany as a 3.5-goal pup on Matchday 1. They’ll enter this matchup having lost four straight games, along with a five-match winless run.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Ecuador vs Curacao prediction.
Ecuador vs Curacao: World Cup Odds
Curacao vs Ecuador Prediction
Based on Ecuador’s lack of attacking prowess and Curacao’s misleading defensive metrics, my Ecuador vs Curacao prediction is the Total Under 3.5 Goals (-145).
It’s absolutely stunning to me that Ecuador’s attack is viewed as (essentially) a goal worse than Germany.
Germany closed -140 to clear 3.5 goals while Ecuador is currently /embed to clear 2.5. But I’ll be shocked if you see the Curacao defense like it did against the Germans.
For the match, Germany created 3.43 expected goals and 4.39 post-shot xG, excluding Kai Havertz’s penalty kick. But it took them 25 shots and 11 shots on target to reach those figures.
Even if you go by the latter figure, a 0.39 psxG per shot on target is not very good. Before that, Curacao allowed four goals to Scotland, but all concessions came after a Curacao red card.
Australia’s five-goal output is also misleading. The Socceroos scored five with only 15 touches inside the Curacao penalty area. By comparison, Germany scored seven off 63.
It leads me to distrust the Ecuador attack, which hasn’t spent much time operating as a possession-heavy team.
In qualifying, they earned over 60% possession five times. Only once saw them clear 2.5 goals, and it came against 10 men!
At the same time, I question how Curacao breaks down the Ecuador defense. In those same five matches, Ecuador conceded only once.
In a world where both teams to score – “no” is priced at -250, I question how this clears 3.5 goals if (presumably) only Ecuador scores goals.
World’s Game Early Payout
If your team goes up by two goals in a World’s Game match, you win immediately!
Log in for more info.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
