Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and an Egypt vs Australia prediction for their round of 32 meeting in Dallas.
Egypt vs Australia: World Cup Odds
Egypt vs Australia: Anytime Goal Odds
Australia vs Egypt Prediction
Based on Australia’s strong underlying metrics against the USA and Turkey, my Egypt vs Australia prediction is Australia Draw, No Bet (+120).
Read More: Draw No Bet Meaning in Soccer Betting
Above all else, my overarching belief for this game is that the gap between the teams is over-exaggerated.
Entering the round of 32, Australia sits 25th in the ELO ratings. By comparison, Egypt ranks 36th and, in my belief, reached the knockouts due to a soft group stage.
Australia offers a good underdog profile for this match based on performances against Turkey and the USMNT.
On Matchday 1, the defense held Turkey to 1.4 expected goals on 30 attempts. Only two of Turkey’s eight shots on target produced a post-shot xG rating north of 0.25.
Australia surrendered two goals to the United States on Matchday 2. However, the defense ran relatively unlucky against its defensive metrics.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side scored twice off 1.1 expected goals, including an opening own goal. Even by post-shot xG – generally worth more than xG – the US amassed 1.3 goals.
Egypt posted inconsistent results as a favorite in the group round. The African outfit won 3-1 against New Zealand, but posted some concerning defensive metrics.
Against one of the weakest teams at the tournament, Egypt surrendered 1.24 xG and 1.61 post-shot xG.
They also ran pretty lucky on Matchday 3 against an admittedly desperate Iran side. Egypt drew 1-1 to finish second, but they lost both the non-penalty xG and post-shot xG battle.
As a favorite, Egypt created only 0.5 post-shot xG against Iran. Based on Australia’s promising defensive metrics, it’s my belief Egypt lacks the justification for this price.
With goals expected to come at a premium, I predict Australia will earn at least a draw at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
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