- England is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Croatia.
- England has won three of the last five matches against Croatia in competition.
- My England vs Croatia prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125).
Two UEFA sides meet on Wednesday in Dallas as England battles Croatia.
The Three Lions rate out amongst the World Cup favorites as they seek their first World Cup crown since 1966. At the 2021 Euros, England dispatched Croatia 1-0 in the group stage.
Croatia, finalists at the 2018 World Cup, arrive at this fixture with mixed form. They lost two of their previous three matches against Brazil and Belgium before beating Slovenia.
Check out the World Cup odds and my England vs Croatia prediction.
England vs Croatia: World Cup Odds
Croatia vs England Prediction
Based on England’s stout defensive record and Croatia’s defensive structure, my England vs Croatia prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125).
It’s difficult to place much stock in these teams’ qualifying matches. Both defenses delivered outstanding results, but the successes came against significantly inferior opposition.
If you go back to the 2024 Euros, though, you will find good defensive metrics.
England barely surrendered many chances, even against good attacks. Spain performed the best over the tournament, amassing 1.95 expected goals in the semis.
Croatia offers a slightly easier test than the World Cup co-favorites. I try not to place much stock in friendlies, but the attack managed only five shots against a bad Belgium defense.
We’ve also seen England limit good counterattacks in the tournament buildup.
Against a high-powered Japan attack, England surrendered only one goal off two shots on target and 15 box entries.
But we’ve simultaneously seen the English attack struggle to create chances with the ball.
Albeit without Harry Kane, the attack managed to find the target with four of 19 shots against Japan.
In a pre-tournament friendly against New Zealand, they managed 23 shots with four on frame.
Croatia has posted good defensive results against England, too. At the 2021 Euros, Croatia kept England to only 0.74 expected goals in a group opener.
Players are obviously much older since that meeting. However, I remain confident Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic can organize a strong defensive block.
Those factors lead me to predict a low-scoring clash between these teams in Dallas.
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