Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and an England vs Norway prediction for their quarterfinal matchup in Miami.
England vs Norway: World Cup Odds
Norway vs England Prediction
Based on the travel for England and a more difficult test for Norway’s attack, my England vs Norway prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110).
The match offers a brutal spot for the English. Thomas Tuchel takes his team from high-altitude Mexico City to hot-and-humid Miami in July.
If that weren’t enough, England played the entire second half virtually down a man against Mexico. The match finished 3-2 at the Azteca, but two goals came from penalty kicks.
I don’t place much stock in England’s defensive performance. But Jarrell Quansah’s red card leaves Tuchel with minimal options at right back. If James can’t go, it’s likely Ezri Konsa will slide over.
Norway ran slightly lucky with its underlying attacking metrics against Brazil. That will happen when you have arguably the world’s best striker on your team.
Still, the UEFA outfit managed two goals off 1.05 expected goals and 1.7 post-shot xG, per FotMob. Haaland’s two goals accounted for only 0.7 of that 1.7 psxG tally.
England will offer a more difficult test for the Norway attack. In fact, I rate this matchup as the toughest test for Norway’s full-strength unit across the entire tournament.
Brazil lacks the midfield ball winners to limit chances at the back. It’s my expectation that the Declan Rice-Elliot Anderson pairing will give Norway problems getting forward.
But I also foresee issues for an English attack. Norway, against Brazil, surrendered only one meaningful chance from open play.
Endrick failed to convert a 0.7 xG chance in the second half. Outside that chance, Norway showed me it can defend well against a competent attack.
England is best described as a high-volatility attack. Four goals against Croatia, a team willing to try and run with them, look impressive.
But if Norway forces England to play with the ball after defending for most of Sunday’s match, I expect the heat to start to play a role.
Those factors lead me to predict a low-scoring fixture on Saturday in Miami.
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