Based on World Cup odds, Norway striker Erling Haaland is +1200 to win the Golden Boot.
Haaland is set to play in his first World Cup as his generation’s most prolific scorer. This season, he won the Premier League Golden Boot with Manchester City, his third win.
In World Cup qualifying, Haaland notched 16 tallies for Norway. In the nation’s 11-1 win over Moldova, Haaland scored five goals in a singular match.
Erling Haaland Golden Boot Prediction & Analysis
Based on Haaland’s difficult matchups against France and Senegal, along with Norway’s defensive issues, I predict Haaland will not win the Golden Boot.
Norway begins its World Cup as a sizable favorite against Iran. The match offers Haaland an opportunity to rack up goals in a hurry, given the total is set at 3.5 goals.
Another encouraging factor with Haaland? He fits the mold of prior Golden Boot winners as his side’s penalty taker. Should he earn opportunities that way, he could add bonus tallies.
Beyond those factors, I wonder about Haaland’s viability to win the Golden Boot.
Norway gets Senegal in its second group fixture before closing with France. Both deploy extremely strong defenses, especially centrally.
Senegal anchors its defense around former Chelsea defender Kalidou Koulibaly.
France features the choice between three outstanding center halves: William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano.
Haaland obviously provides a big challenge for those defenses. However, the cumulative quality leaves me wondering about Haaland, especially when you factor in his price.
Another element working against Haaland’s candidacy is Norway’s ceiling within the tournament.
Most, if not all Golden Boot winners saw their teams experience deep runs within the tournament. Three of the last four winners saw their team reach at least the semifinals.
Norway lacks the defensive record needed to make a deep tournament run. Additionally, the way Golden Boot tiebreakers work adds a second knock against Haaland.
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