- France is predicted to be a 3.5-goal favorite against Iraq.
- France has won four of its previous five matches, scoring 3+ in two straight.
- My France vs Iraq prediction depends on the France lineup and the weather.
After an impressive second half against Senegal, France returns to action against Iraq.
Les Bleus staggered out of the gates at MetLife Stadium. The prolific attack generated only 0.02 expected goals in the first half against Senegal, before scoring three in the second half.
Iraq showed life as a lofty underdog against Norway, scoring a first-half goal. Ultimately, the Norway attack proved too much for the World Cup debutants, who fell 4-1.
Check out the World Cup odds and my France vs Iraq prediction.
France vs Iraq: World Cup Odds
Iraq vs France Prediction
If France sends out a full-strength Starting XI and Monday’s weather cooperates in Philadelphia, my France vs Iraq prediction is France 1H Over 1.5 Goals (+130).
France could put out an entirely new Starting XI and win this match with ease. Ultimately, the goal for France is to take all three points with eyes on the third match against Norway.
It leads me to approach this match with some caution. Plus, as I write this on Wednesday, the Philadelphia weather report looks somewhat concerning.
A 5 p.m. ET kickoff calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with a 75% chance of rain. It could lead to a lower-event match, especially one projected to be this lopsided.
If, however, the weather forecast improves AND France sends out the same lineup against Senegal, I expect goals flow early.
Iraq struggled to defend early against Norway. A comparable attack to France scored twice inside halftime while generating 1.8 expected goals, 1.7 post-shot xG and three big chances.
It marked the second straight match against a UEFA outfit in which Iraq conceded at least one first-half goal. Spain, in a pre-tournament friendly, scored inside 20 minutes.
Although that remained their only tally, it came at a smaller frequency than its underlying metrics. For the entire first half, Spain created two big scoring chances.
France plays more directly compared to Spain at full strength. Of course, that may present a problem at more extreme temperatures.
But with France priced at to score a goal, I like the price on Les Bleus to find a second tally inside halftime.
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