Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a France vs Morocco prediction for their quarterfinal matchup in Foxborough.
France vs Morocco: World Cup Odds
Morocco vs France Prediction
Based on France’s attacking struggles against specific defenses and Morocco’s lackluster metrics against Canada, my France vs Morocco prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (-115).
These teams met at the 2022 World Cup semifinals in Qatar. France picked up a 2-0 win over a slightly different Morocco side, but I expect this match to play out pretty similarly.
France created 2.1 expected goals compared to 1.01 post-shot xG against the Atlas Lions. Notably, Morocco lost a central defender from its initial back five on 21 minutes.
All the way back on Matchday 1, Morocco showed its ability to defend in a low block as an underdog. For the match, Brazil generated 1.3 expected goals against the 2022 semifinalists.
France offers a slightly superior attacking threat than Brazil. However, I left their round of 16 contest against Paraguay thoroughly unimpressed with the attack.
Outside Kylian Mbappe’s penalty kick, France created only 0.58 expected goals and 1.08 post-shot xG, per FotMob.
In terms of France’s group stage output, the 2018 champions left me unimpressed. Three goals against Iraq mean little here, as does four against Norway’s backups.
Three goals against Senegal looks impressive. However, the output came off 1.8 expected goals and 2.06 post-shot xG. In the first half, France posted 0.03 and zero, respectively.
At the same time, the match offers a potential sell-high opportunity on Morocco’s attack. Three goals against Canada came very luckily as Morocco created 0.8 expected goals.
Playing the Netherlands in the round of 32, Morocco created 1.45 post-shot xG in regular time. By comparison, France beats the Dutch defense in overall quality.
Key attacker Isamael Saibari could miss the quarterfinal as well after leaving Saturday’s match with an injury.
Lastly, both teams have run lucky against their underlying metrics. Morocco has scored 10 goals off 8.3 expected in five matches, while France has scored 14 goals off 10.6 xG.
Those factors lead me to predict Thursday’s quarterfinal will stay under the total.
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