France vs Sweden Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a France vs Sweden prediction for their round of 32 fixture in East Rutherford.

France vs Sweden: World Cup Odds

France vs Sweden: Anytime Goal Odds

Sweden vs France Prediction

Based on France’s stout defensive record and Sweden’s misleading attacking metrics against bad defenses, my France vs Sweden prediction is Sweden Under 0.5 Goals (-118).

Sweden’s Viktor Gyokeres-Alexander Isak strike partnership shined in the group stage. The team scored in all three group matches and last failed to score before hiring Graham Potter.

But the circumstances around their seven group goals deserve close scrutiny.

Sweden scored five of seven against a horrible Tunisia defense. The attack ran very lucky in the game, scoring those five goals off 1.3 expected goals and 2.1 post-shot xG.

Contributions as underdogs against the Netherlands and Japan came at negative game states.

Indoors at Houston Stadium, Sweden scored from 4-0 down against the Dutch. Their tally against Japan came on a shot worth 0.02 xG/0.13 post-shot xG.

The attack added 0.7 psxG in second-half stoppage time. Again, it came inside against a defense significantly inferior to France.

Now Sweden goes outside in hot-and-humid New Jersey to face the best defense in the tournament.

Many moons have passed since Sweden played a top-tier country. The last time they faced a current top-five side in the ELO ratings? Nov. 2021.

Much has changed since then, but the fact remains that Sweden enters this match as a massive negative regression candidate.

In the group stage, France played a markedly better Senegal team. Current ELO ratings rate Senegal 23rd while Sweden ranks 36th.

Against the African outfit, France surrendered one goal off 0.17 post-shot xG. Accordingly, I predict Sweden, as a negative regression candidate, fails to score against France.