Group A World Cup Odds: Mexico (-118) Favored to Win

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group A winner. 

Most Likely to Win Group A at 2026 FIFA World Cup

Mexico (-118) is predicted to win Group A at the World Cup. The current price implies a 54.1% probability that El Tri finishes atop the group. 

Oddsmakers price the Czech Republic as the closest challenger. As of April 10, they are +250 to win the group for a 28.6% implied probability. 

Group A World Cup 2026 Odds

Group A World Cup 2026 Prediction

Based on their home-field advantage throughout the group stage, I predict Mexico (-118) wins Group A. 

Predicting this group’s outcome is, in my estimation, amongst the hardest. Mexico, if not for the host nation advantage, appears a vulnerable group favorite. 

Right now, monitoring the status of Mexico midfielder Edson Alvarez is key to the group outcome. Ankle surgery sidelined Alvarez in February, leaving his status in question. 

With Alvarez, Mexico’s defensive prowess takes a significant jump. Additionally, the home-field advantage for an in-form Mexico is difficult to ignore. 

During the March international window, Mexico took points against both Portugal – without Cristiano Ronaldo – and Belgium. 

Mexico changed managers in September 2024, opting for Javier Aguirre. Under Aguirre, Mexico played 26 total matches, taking points in 22 of those fixtures. 

Aguirre notably led Mexico to a 2025 Gold Cup victory. In the final against the United States, Mexico won 2-1 while dominating the underlying metrics. 

Post-shot expected goals finished 2.2 to 0.8, per FotMob. 

If Alvarez returns to full health, Mexico owns the best defense of any team in this group. Paired with the home advantage, it would be Mexico or nothing in the group stage.