Group F World Cup Odds: Netherlands (-140) Favored to Win

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group F winner.

Most Likely to Win Group F at 2026 FIFA World Cup

The Netherlands (-140) is predicted to win Group F at the World Cup. The current price implies a 58.3% probability that Ronald Koeman’s side wins Group F.

Oddsmakers price Japan as the closest challenger to the Netherlands. After reaching the round of 16 in 2022, Japan is +300 to win the group for a 25% implied probability.

Group F World Cup 2026 Odds

Group F World Cup 2026 Prediction

Based on their superior ability to beat Sweden and Tunisia, I predict the Netherlands (-140) will win Group F.

Confidence in this group outcome is relatively low. I’m scared enough of Japan that laying a price with the favorites worries me. That said, the likeliest outcome is probably right.

Japan showed in Qatar that it’s a dangerous underdog. En route to winning the group, Japan claimed maximum points against Spain and Germany.

Their success continued recently with Japan capturing wins over both England and Brazil in friendlies.

But a core problem faces Japan in this group construction. When Japan is asked to play with the ball against inferior opposition, it tends to struggle.

We saw that trend on display in Qatar. After a 4-1 win over Germany, Japan lost 1-0 to Costa Rica. Suddenly, the team went from almost two post-shot expected goals to 0.4.

Japan struggled against inferior competition during qualifying, too. Australia and Saudi Arabia both earned points against Japan, with the Blue Samurai controlling over 50% possession.

It leads me to believe that Japan could struggle against teams like Sweden and Tunisia. Meanwhile, I trust the Netherlands not to slip up against those teams.

Sweden possesses a very weak defense. In qualifying, Graham Potter’s side lost all four matches against Malta and Switzerland. Metrics rated the games proper defeats.

The Netherlands attack should dominate Sweden’s defense. Plus, Tunisia lacks experience against good competition.

In its lone competitive match against a top-30 FIFA-ranked team (Nigeria), the African outfit lost 3-2 while going down 3-0 relatively quickly.

Even if the Netherlands drops points to Japan, I trust Koeman’s side to dominate Sweden and Tunisia. Accordingly, I predict the favorites come through as group winners.