Group G World Cup Odds: Belgium (-285) Favored to Win

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group G winner.

Most Likely to Win Group G at 2026 FIFA World Cup

Belgium (-285) is predicted to win Group G at the World Cup. At that price, Belgium has a 74% implied probability of coming through as group winners.

Egypt (+450), led by Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush, is priced as the closest challenger. The African side possesses a 18.2% implied probability to win Group G.

Group G World Cup 2026 Odds

Group G World Cup 2026 Prediction

Based on Belgium’s weak defensive record and lack of World Cup group success, I predict Egypt (+450) wins Group G at a higher rate than their implied chance.

Belgium always rates out as a strong fade candidate for me at World Cups. The UEFA side consistently underperforms at the World Cup, largely because of its problematic defense.

If there’s a case for Belgian optimism, it’s that the draw looks favorable on paper. However, we would have said the same about Belgium getting Morocco, Canada and Croatia in Qatar.

Belgium lost the expected goals battle in two of those three matches: Morocco and Canada. Both cleared 1.6 expected goals against the Belgian defense, which hasn’t changed since ‘22.

In World Cup qualifying, Belgium largely faced easy competition. Only Wales qualifies as a true test.

Across both meetings, Belgium surrendered five goals off 3.1 xG, 3.4 post-shot xG and eight big scoring chances.

Even Ukraine reached 2.8 xG and 3.8 post-shot xG against Rudi Garcia’s outfit back in March 2025.

Simultaneously, Belgium showed quality by throttling the USMNT 5-2 in March. However, they followed it with a 1-1 draw to Mexico, where they clearly played second best.

All of that is to say Belgium can lose to anyone, so trusting them at this price is difficult.

I side with Egypt in this group despite a lot of unknowns. The team struggled in attack at the Africa Cup of Nations against quality opposition like Nigeria and Senegal.

If there are signs for encouragement, it’s that both teams finished under 0.5 xG against Egypt’s defense. Whether that will translate against Belgium on Matchday 1 is unknown.

Egypt did capture a 0-0 draw against Spain during a March friendly. However, it came while allowing four big scoring chances and 49 box touches.

Plus, if you’re telling me Egypt is +360 to beat Belgium compared to +450 to win the group, I like the price on the AFCON side to surprise come June.