Group I World Cup Odds: France (-250) Favored to Win

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group I winner.

Most Likely to Win Group I at 2026 FIFA World Cup

France (-250) is predicted to win Group I at the World Cup. The 2018 FIFA World Cup winners’ price implies a 71.4% probability that they win the group.

Upstart Norway – headlined by Manchester City talisman Erling Haaland – is +275 to win the group. That price implies a 26.7% chance Norway wins the group.

Group I World Cup 2026 Odds

Group I World Cup 2026 Prediction

Based on the market perception for this group and Senegal’s staunch defense, I predict France (-250) wins the group with Senegal (+700) finishing second.

I’m not sure the gap between Norway and Senegal is as big as the market indicates. Norway cruised through an easy World Cup qualifying without facing many obstacles.

Six wins over Israel, Estonia and Moldova become relatively meaningless at this stage. While Norway captured two wins over Italy by a 7-1 margin, underlying metrics rated it fluky.

Across both legs, Norway captured that margin despite posting a +2 post-shot expected goal differential. By expected goals, the margin drops to +1.4.

All of France, Norway and Senegal feature enough attacking prowess to dominate Iraq. My question is what Norway looks like against competent defenses like France and Senegal.

Albeit without Haaland, Norway failed to generate a big scoring chance in a March friendly at the Netherlands. The defense simultaneously allowed five big scoring chances.

Norway subsequently deployed Haaland in a recent friendly against Switzerland. In attack, the team created only two big scoring chances.

Senegal reached the Africa Cup of Nations final, featuring a strong defense. Plus, the last World Cup saw Senegal keep both England and the Netherlands under 1.05 xG.

Given Norway’s shaky defensive record, it wouldn’t surprise me to watch Senegal steal points from the European outfit.

That same defensive record likely puts Norway in trouble against France. At the 2025 UEFA Nations League, France nearly reached three post-shot xG against Spain.

The same transpired in France’s Nations League match against Germany. If that’s how France performs against top-tier sides, I question how they come up short against weaker countries.

At the same time, Senegal’s defensive record gives them a better chance in the head-to-head against France. Given that belief, I predict Senegal will surprise and finish second in Group I.