- Iran is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against New Zealand.
- Both Teams to Score - “No” has cashed in four of New Zealand’s last five matches.
- My Iran vs New Zealand prediction is Both Teams to Score - “No” (-135).
The opening round of Group G concludes in Los Angeles as Iran faces New Zealand.
New Zealand will hope to end a dismal run of form in its World Cup opener. Since last June, the Oceanic outfit has won twice, drawn once and lost nine.
Iran dropped all three points only once in its last five, winning twice. It erased a 2-1 friendly defeat to Nigeria on March 27 with a 3-1 win over Gambia on May 29.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Iran vs New Zealand prediction.
Iran vs New Zealand: World Cup Odds
New Zealand vs Iran Prediction
Based on New Zealand’s defensive performance against England and Iran’s qualifying record as a favorite, my Iran vs New Zealand prediction is Both Teams to Score – “No” (-135)
Read More: How Often do Both Teams Score in World Cup Matches?
I try not to put too much stock into friendlies. That said, New Zealand showed a strong defensive structure without the ball against England on June 6.
Despite allowing 23 shots, New Zealand allowed only four on target from the Three Lions. Now, the market prices them as an underdog against an inferior Iran attack.
Of course, it’s concerning that Haiti scored four against New Zealand. But Haiti achieved that feat off only 1.6 expected goals, per Footy Stats.
For Iran, it’s a decent defensive test that will force it to play as the possession-dominant side. While they’ve scored eight goals over Costa Rica and Gambia, the method must take notice.
Against Costa Rica, the attack scored five times, with two coming via the penalty spot. Gambia, which sits 99th in soccer’s ELO ratings, allowed three goals after taking a lead.
From an attacking standpoint, New Zealand lacks many threats outside Chris Wood.
Plus, even if you discount the attacking performance against England, I worry about their performance against Haiti.
Against one of the weakest defenses in the tournament, New Zealand generated only 1.4 expected goals off 12 shots. Only three of those 12 found the target.
Iran’s defense, from a goals allowed standpoint, looks concerning. In qualifying, the unit conceded two to North Korea, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
But the concessions came from positive game states as Iran took early advantages. The longer this match stays level, I expect both teams to sit back and defend.
Accordingly, I predict at least one team fails to score in a match where under 2.5 goals is -160.
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