- Japan is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Sweden.
- Japan is unbeaten in its last eight matches (W7-D1), including a 4-0 win over Tunisia.
- My Japan vs Sweden prediction is Japan Over 1.5 Goals (-110).
Japan will try to pull out an unlikely group win on Matchday 3 against reeling Sweden.
The Blue Samurai cruised to a 4-0 win over Tunisia on Matchday 2. Daichi Kamada scored after only four minutes as Japan moved level on points with the Netherlands.
Sweden suffered a 5-1 beatdown against the Dutch on Matchday 2. Graham Potter’s side sits third on three points, good for the top spot amongst all 12 third-place teams.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Japan vs Sweden prediction.
Japan vs Sweden: World Cup Odds
Sweden vs Japan Prediction
Based on Sweden’s poor defensive record this tournament and Japan’s requirement to attack at will, my Japan vs Sweden prediction is Japan Over 1.5 Goals (-110).
I left the Japan-Tunisia match wildly impressed by Japan’s attack. At the last World Cup, the attack struggled to create chances against inferior opposition while countering well as a dog.
Matchday 2 against Tunisia marked a stark improvement. The Blue Samurai scored inside five minutes and added a second before the halftime whistle.
All told, Japan raced out to a 4-0 win while generating 2.7 post-shot expected goals. It came in a match where the Asian outfit held 62% of the ball.
Now Japan gets another chance to score at will against a bad Sweden defense.
Graham Potter’s team has yet to keep a clean sheet in two matches. Even lowly Tunisia found a tally on Matchday 1, albeit off only 0.3 post-shot xG.
Japan likely falls somewhere in the middle of the Netherlands (4.2 post-shot xG) and Tunisia’s output.
At minimum, the attack should score against a team that hasn’t kept a clean sheet since last June. In a pre-tournament friendly against Greece, Sweden allowed two goals off 1.43 xG.
Lastly, group tiebreakers incentivize Japan to run up the score. Currently, the Netherlands holds the group winner tiebreaker, having scored seven goals to Japan’s six.
For Japan to win the group, they need to both score goals and produce a heavy goal differential. Those factors lead me to predict Japan clears this benchmark for the third straight match.
World’s Game Early Payout
If your team goes up by two goals in a World’s Game match, you win immediately!
Log in for more info.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
