- Japan is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Tunisia.
- Japan has avoided defeat in each of its last seven matches.
- My Japan vs Tunisia prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
Japan will look to build off its Matchday 1 momentum as favorites against Tunisia.
The Blue Samurai continued its prowess as an underdog, drawing the Netherlands 2-2. It took Japan to seven straight matches unbeaten.
Tunisia suffered a 5-1 throttling against Sweden on Matchday 1. Their response? Sacking manager Sabri Lamouchi before their trip to Monterrey.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Japan vs Tunisia prediction.
Japan vs Tunisia: World Cup Odds
Tunisia vs Japan Prediction
Based on Japan’s attacking metrics as a market favorite and Tunisia’s misleading defensive record, my Japan vs Tunisia prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
This group featured two of the more misleading scorelines across Matchday 1.
Japan drew the Netherlands 2-2 despite a -0.84 post-shot expected goal differential. Expected goals, which are generally worth less, came out to a measly 1.37 between the two teams.
Then there’s Tunisia’s 5-1 defeat against Sweden. Six goals came against only 1.6 expected goals and 2.47 post-shot expected goals, per FotMob.
Tunisia itself conceded five times against 1.3 xG and 2.1 post-shot xG.
Some positive regression should occur against Japan, which generally performs better in attack as the underdog. As a favorite, creativity comes at a premium.
Just look at the 2022 World Cup. Japan goes out and beats Germany 2-1 before falling 1-0 against Costa Rica. The match featured only one expected goal.
Japan controlled 57% of the ball in that match and lost the post-shot xG battle. They’re now a worse attack without Kaoru Mitoma, who is out for the World Cup.
At the same time, Tunisia showed me so little against a pretty bad Swedish defense. Albeit in a 3-5-2 shape, the African side created only 0.3 xG.
As a result, I predict bettors will see a lower-scoring fixture at high altitude on Saturday.
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