Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Mexico vs Ecuador prediction for their round of 32 fixture in Mexico City.
Mexico vs Ecuador: World Cup Odds
Mexico vs Ecuador: Anytime Goal Odds
Ecuador vs Mexico Prediction
Based on Ecuador’s misleading attacking metrics against Germany and offensive failure against the Ivory Coast, my Mexico vs Ecuador prediction is Ecuador Under 0.5 Goals (+120).
The Ecuadorian attack surged to two goals in a must-win game against Germany. But it’s important to measure the quality of those chances.
Ecuador scored twice off 1.3 expected goals and 1.7 post-shot xG. Their first goal contribution came on a screamer worth only 0.03 xG and 0.52 post-shot xG.
Not until the 62nd minute did Ecuador place another shot on target against Germany. The attack also struggled on Matchday 1 against the Ivory Coast.
Post and crossbar misfortune played a role in Ecuador failing to score as a +135 favorite. But the team still placed only one of 12 shots on target for a 0.03 post-shot xG output.
Plus, the attack created only one chance north of 0.2 xG with three chances above 0.15 xG against the Ivory Coast.
Mexico has yet to concede in the World Cup and will benefit from lighter travel and extra rest over Ecuador.
Even if you discount the South Africa match, neither South Korea nor Czechia came close to finding a goal.
South Korea failed to score off 0.76 post-shot xG. Its two shots on target came in the 87th minute after Mexico scored in the 50th minute.
Czechia, which needed to go for it in order to try and advance, amassed only 0.13 post-shot xG against Mexico’s defense.
By comparison, the Czech attack offers more threats than Ecuador. Lastly, Mexico surrendered few chances to Ecuador in a recent friendly.
Ecuador’s full-strength attack scored off a penalty kick when these teams met last October. Including that penalty kick, Ecuador managed only 0.96 xG for the match.
Those factors, along with Mexico’s home-field advantage, lead me to predict Ecuador fails to score in Mexico City.
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