Mexico vs England Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Mexico vs England prediction for their round of 16 clash in Mexico City.

Mexico vs England: World Cup Odds

Mexico vs England: Anytime Goal Odds

England vs Mexico Prediction

Based on Mexico’s offensive luck in their first four matches and their role changing from favorite to underdog, my Mexico vs England prediction is Mexico Under 0.5 Goals (+145).

El Tri scored eight goals through four matches, including two against Ecuador in the round of 32. However, this match offers a potential negative regression spot as a market underdog.

England poses the stiffest test for the Mexico attack so far.

It marks a steep increase from their match against Ecuador, which sits 14th in soccer’s ELO ratings. By comparison, England ranks fourth.

Mexico scored twice against the South American outfit. However, those two goals came against 1.05 xG, 1.14 post-shot xG and two big scoring chances.

Since the start of the group stage, Mexico has scored eight goals off 4.5 expected goals. Of that total, 33% came against South Africa, which received two red cards.

The attack looked its best against Czechia, but I rate that defense miles behind England’s unit.

For all of the Three Lions’ inconsistencies at the World Cup, the defense has held up its end of the bargain.

Croatia scored two unlikely first-half goals on Matchday 1. The 2018 finalists achieved that feat off 0.4 expected goals and 0.2 post-shot xG, per FotMob.

England went on to keep clean sheets against Ghana and Panama. Of course, neither of those teams match Mexico’s level, especially when you factor in home-field advantage.

Against DR Congo, England surrendered a goal inside 10 minutes. However, the goal proved very unlikely by underlying metrics. Brian Cipenga’s opening tally carried a 0.07 xG/0.1 post-shot xG weight.

But this is a Mexico team that has rarely operated as an underdog since appointing Javier Aguirre. Additionally, I rate Croatia’s attack on a similar level to Mexico’s unit.

While the comparison takes on less meaning given the managerial change, Mexico has historically struggled against top-tier nations.

At the 2022 World Cup, Mexico generated only 0.3 expected goals against eventual winners Argentina. Mexico even staggered to a 0.7 xG performance against Poland.

That leads me to predict Mexico will regress against its underlying metrics against a stout Three Lions defense.