Mexico vs South Korea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Mexico meets South Korea in Guadalajara as the teams jockey for Group A pole position.

El Tri cruised to an easy 2-0 win over South Africa in their tournament opener. The World Cup co-hosts pounced on an error to lead inside 10 minutes before consolidating after a red card.

South Korea stormed back to win 2-1 against Czechia on Matchday 1, despite conceding the opening goal. Now, they’ll try to earn their first win against Mexico in their sixth attempt.

Check out the World Cup odds and my Mexico vs South Korea prediction.

Mexico vs South Korea: World Cup Odds

South Korea vs Mexico Prediction

Based on South Korea’s defensive luck against Czechia and Mexico’s success in a recent meeting, my Mexico vs South Korea prediction is Mexico Over 1.5 Goals (+140).

At minimum, the price paints an inaccurate picture of South Korea’s defense. The unit kept Czechia under this benchmark, but it required a bunch of luck.

South Korea survived a narrow offside call that denied Czechia a second goal. After taking a 2-1 lead late, the defense allowed two quality chances.

Quality goalkeeping kept out those chances. However, the South Korea defense allowed one goal off 2.07 post-shot expected goals, excluding the close-offside call.

Now they take on a Mexico side that gave them trouble late last year. Mexico notched two goals in a Sept. 2025 friendly on U.S. soil, creating 1.9 expected goals in the process.

We’ve also seen extreme volatility from South Korea that renders its defense untrustworthy. Is it the team that allowed 1.6 xG to Ivory Coast or 0.6 in a friendly to Austria?

Still, they’re taking on a Mexico side that scored five against Serbia in their last tournament tune-up.

In their three final friendlies before the tournament, Mexico averaged 1.7 expected goals per 90 minutes.

At minimum, I predict Mexico scores at least once. Whether it gets to multiple is more difficult to call, but the price associated with the market piques my interest.