- The Netherlands is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Sweden.
- Sweden has scored at least two goals in four of its last five matches.
- My Netherlands vs Sweden prediction is the Netherlands Over 1.5 Goals (-118).
The Netherlands meet fellow UEFA side Sweden in Houston on Saturday.
Ronald Koeman’s side drew 2-2 against Japan on Matchday 1. It leaves the Dutch behind Sweden in Group F after Graham Potter’s side earned a 5-1 win against Tunisia.
Now, the Netherlands defense will try to slow down another prolific attack. Entering Saturday’s match, Sweden has scored at least two goals in four of its last five matches.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Netherlands vs Sweden prediction.
Netherlands vs Sweden: World Cup Odds
Sweden vs Netherlands Prediction
Based on Sweden’s defensive metrics under Potter and the Netherlands’ attacking stats against Japan, my Netherlands vs Sweden prediction is the Netherlands Over 1.5 Goals (-118).
I want to sell Sweden somehow after a very misleading result on Matchday 1. Sweden created under 1.5 expected goals in a 5-1 win. By post-shot xG, they managed only 2.1.
The issue is I don’t trust the Dutch defense enough to justify laying -145 on the three-way moneyline. It leads me to the team total against a poor Swedish defense.
Albeit in a small sample size, Sweden’s defense has struggled under Potter. They’ve now played seven matches under Potter, failing to keep a clean sheet in all seven.
The defense technically ran unlucky against Tunisia, allowing one goal off 0.3 xG. But it came against a team operating in a 3-5-2 formation with a clear intention to try and defend.
The Netherlands won’t make the same mistake. Additionally, Sweden’s underlying metrics over all seven Potter matches leave a lot to be desired.
Over five competitive matches, Sweden allowed 1.29 xG per 90. By post-shot xG, the figure rises to 1.52 per 90 minutes.
Remove a 0.35 psxG performance against Tunisia from that sample, and it suddenly looks much worse. Even Greece, in a pre-tournament friendly, reached 1.43 xG against Sweden.
It should lead to chances for the Netherlands. Although they managed only 0.9 xG against Japan, their shots on target quality propelled the attack to 2.12.
At minimum, I expect the Dutch to score at least once indoors. Given Sweden’s poor defensive record, I predict it’s more likely than not that the attack scores a second.
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