- Norway is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Senegal.
- Norway has conceded at least one goal in four of its last five matches.
- My Norway vs Senegal prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105).
After a blowout win over Iraq, Norway battles Senegal at MetLife Stadium in Group I.
Erling Haaland scored twice as Norway dispatched Iraq 4-1 in Foxborough. The win leaves Norway atop Group I, leading France on goal differential.
Senegal put together a strong first half against France. However, the African outfit lost 3-1 after the defense conceded myriad chances in the second half.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Norway vs Senegal prediction.
Norway vs Senegal: World Cup Odds
Senegal vs Norway Prediction
Based on Norway’s attacking strength and lack of defensive quality against good attacks, my Norway vs Senegal prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105).
Let’s start with the Senegalese attack. At a minimum, I expect the group finds a tally. Odds reflect that belief as Both Teams to Score – “Yes” is priced at .
If Senegal wants to go for second place and avoid third-place roulette against a group winner, the attack has to go for it.
The good news? They’re getting a Norway defense that has struggled to keep clean sheets. Only once in the last five has Norway kept a clean sheet.
Over a long-term sample size, Norway lacks experience against good teams. Since Sept. 2024, the team has played only four games against teams ranked 25th or better in the ELO ratings.
The defense kept only one clean sheet against Austria and Italy. A blowup 4.1 post-shot xG allowance at Austria contributed to this figure, but the defense averaged 1.56 xGA per 90.
Still, the unit kept only one opponent under 0.5 post-shot xG over those four matches. They also allowed Iraq to create 0.8 expected goals on Matchday 1.
At the same time, I worry about the Senegal defense. It briefly provided a strong front against France, but I attribute that more to France’s attacking play.
It continued a trend of Senegal struggling against European attacks. At the last World Cup, the defense surrendered two to the Netherlands and three to England.
England ran a bit lucky, but the defense still conceded at least 1.2 post-shot xG in all three. Plus, Norway rates out as a superior attack to the England attack that created 1.23.
Those factors lead me to predict goals flow under the lights at MetLife on Sunday.
World’s Game Early Payout
If your team goes up by two goals in a World’s Game match, you win immediately!
Log in for more info.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
