- Panama is predicted to be a 0.5-goal underdog against Croatia.
- Croatia has lost three of its previous four matches.
- My Panama vs Croatia prediction is Croatia Over 1.5 Goals (-130).
Two Group L teams off Matchday 1 losses – Panama and Croatia – meet in Toronto.
Favorites Croatia struggled as underdogs against England. The defense conceded four goals against the Three Lions, while two unlikely goals improved the game margin.
Panama looked the better team against Ghana up until stoppage time. The African nation scored on 95 minutes to take all three points as a narrow favorite.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Panama vs Croatia prediction.
Panama vs Croatia: World Cup Odds
Croatia vs Panama Prediction
Based on Panama’s weak defensive metrics as a sizable underdog and Croatia’s attacking success as a favorite, my Panama vs Croatia prediction is Croatia Over 1.5 Goals (-130).
It’s a tough handicap for Croatia’s attack. On the one hand, the team ran extremely lucky against England, scoring twice off 0.5 post-shot xG.
How much of that is a function of the opponent remains unknown.
Additionally, Panama showed good defensive structure against Ghana. The CONCACAF outfit conceded 1.03 of their 1.31 xGA output in second-half stoppage time.
What concerns me about Panama is their previous performances against teams like Croatia.
At the 2024 Copa America, Panama failed to keep a clean sheet in four matches. Two teams (Colombia and Uruguay) cleared 2.5 goals against the defense.
Central defender Murillo featured in neither match. His presence in the World Cup undoubtedly boosts Panama’s defensive profile.
Still, Croatia (#13) sits between Colombia (#5) and Uruguay (#16) in soccer’s current ELO ratings.
Additionally, Zlatko Dalic managed this side to four goals against Canada at the 2022 World Cup. In that match, Croatia generated 2.3 expected goals and six big scoring chances.
At minimum, I predict Croatia scores at least once. The price leads me to predict they clear this benchmark more often than not against Panama’s defense.
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