Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Portugal vs Croatia prediction for their round of 32 clash in Toronto.
Portugal vs Croatia: World Cup Odds
Portugal vs Croatia: Anytime Goal Odds
Croatia vs Portugal Prediction
Based on Portugal’s attacking struggles vs. DR Congo and Colombia, along with their strong defensive record, my Portugal vs Croatia prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (+105).
So long as the onus is placed on Portugal to attack well, the under will always earn my interest. Save for a five-goal burst against Uzbekistan, Portugal looked dismal in attack.
The Cristiano Ronaldo-led attack stayed under one expected goal as a 1.5-goal favorite against DR Congo. Against Colombia’s volatile defense, the attack created 0.93 expected goals.
More concerning is Portugal’s ability to consistently hit the target. The attack amassed only 0.5 post-shot xG against Colombia after reaching 0.53 against DR Congo.
It should inhibit their ability to exploit Croatia’s defensive structure. Although the 2018 finalists surrendered four to England, I rate Portugal’s attack behind the Three Lions.
Plus, the method in which England-Croatia played out impacted the final six-goal tally. England scored a penalty kick inside 15 minutes before Croatia added an unlikely goal on 36 minutes.
England took another lead before Croatia equalized at halftime. All told, the first half featured four goals off 0.96 non-penalty expected goals, per FotMob.
Croatia’s unlikely tallies put pressure on England to score. If Croatia fails to convert those low-quality chances, the match likely sees fewer goals at both ends.
Against Portugal’s strong defense, Croatia likely sees some negative offensive regression. During the group stage, Zlatko Dalic’s team ran very lucky against its metrics.
Croatia scored five goals compared to 2.8 expected goals over its first three matches. By post-shot xG, which generally receives higher weighting, the attack notched 2.6 goals.
For all of Portugal’s inconsistency during the group phase, the defense looked good. While Colombia reached 1.7 xG, the South American outfit created only 0.6 post-shot xG.
A narrow offside call denied Colombia a goal. Still, my belief is that the Colombian attack offers a greater threat than Croatia.
Those factors lead me to predict a low-scoring fixture between the European sides in Toronto.
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