Senegal will try to secure a spot in the World Cup knockout round as heavy favorites against Iraq.
The Senegalese defense struggled once again on Matchday 2. For the second straight game, the unit allowed three goals, surrendering two to Norway’s Erling Haaland.
Iraq simultaneously fell 3-0 against France, dropping its second straight game. While technically not eliminated, Iraq needs a blowout win to earn third place and reach the knockouts.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Senegal vs Iraq prediction.
Senegal vs Iraq: World Cup Odds
Iraq vs Senegal Prediction
Based on Iraq’s positive defensive performance against France and Senegal’s weak attacking record as a favorite, my Senegal vs Iraq prediction is Senegal Under 2.5 Goals (-130).
The metrics won’t show it entirely, but I liked what I saw from Iraq’s defense against France.
Kylian Mbappe scored an unlikely screamer worth only 0.04 xG and 0.09 post-shot xG to open the match. A rain-filled first half saw France generate only 0.23 xG.
A lengthy weather delay offered superior second-half conditions. France, from a positive game state, generated 2.4 xG and 2.2 post-shot xG.
Still, Senegal offers a slightly easier test for Iraq compared to France and Norway. By ELO ratings, Senegal (#23) sits well behind France (#3) and Norway (#10).
Plus, Iraq arrives at this fixture with motivation to defend. Although unlikely, an outright win at least gives a chance for the Middle Eastern outfit to reach the knockouts.
Senegal also struggled to create chances in recent fixtures as a lofty favorite.
At the Africa Cup of Nations, the attack scored only once against Mali, which sits a spot ahead of Iraq in the ELO ratings. More concerning? Mali played down a man for the second half.
Senegal created only 1.9 expected goals and 2.3 post-shot xG in that fixture, possessing 65% of the ball.
Go all the way back to the 2022 World Cup, and bettors will find Senegal struggled against bad teams.
While the attack scored three times against Qatar, it came off only 1.4 post-shot xG. Add in the switch from underdog to favorite, and I predict Senegal stays under a high benchmark.
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