Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Spain vs Argentina prediction for the World Cup Final in East Rutherford.
Spain vs Argentina: World Cup Odds
Argentina vs Spain Prediction
Based on Argentina’s defensive strategy against England and unlikely goal contributions, my Spain vs Argentina prediction is Both Teams to Score – “No” (-118).
Argentina showed a clear strategy in the semifinal against England. The current holders opted to defend deep early and try to limit the Three Lions’ chances.
Bettors should expect a similar script against a more powerful Spanish attack. To Argentina’s credit, they held a superior attack to only 0.05 xG indoors.
Now they head outside to hot-and-humid East Rutherford. Generally speaking, games in higher temperatures see fewer opportunities at both ends.
What is most concerning for Argentina is how lucky they ran in attack against an inferior defense.
The 2024 Copa America winners scored twice in regular time off 1.84 expected goals. However, 0.71 of that total came on the game-winner against an England side content on defending.
For Spain, the match offers an easier defensive test than the semifinal. Against France, the 2010 champions surrendered only 0.3 expected goals.
Even by post-shot xG – generally worth more than xG – Spain’s defense held France to 0.07 goals. Never in the entire tournament has an opponent cleared one expected goal against Spain.
It marks a strong sell-high spot on Argentina, which has run lucky in attack throughout the entire tournament. Their 19 goals have come against 14.6 expected goals.
At the same time, Spain benefited from an early penalty against France to inform a positive game state. Outside that penalty kick, the current European champions created 0.85 xG.
Both Spain shots on target went in against France. For Argentina, they scored two goals with only one shot showing a post-shot xG value north of 0.1.
BTTS – “Yes” has hit in only one Spain World Cup match this year. While I’m intrigued by Argentina Under 0.5 Goals (+150), I prefer the safer option.
Accordingly, I predict at least one team will fail to score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
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