Spain vs Austria Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Spain vs Austria prediction for their round of 32 fixture in Los Angeles.

Spain vs Austria: World Cup Odds

Spain vs Austria: Anytime Goal Odds

Austria vs Spain Prediction

Based on Austria’s weak attacking metrics against Argentina and over/under record as an underdog, my Spain vs Austria prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110).

The over/under essentially comes down to whether Austria’s defense holds up. As indicated by Both Teams to Score – “No” (), it’s reasonable to expect only one team to score.

Prior underlying metrics support that notion. Austria, as a comparably-sized underdog against Argentina, struggled to create much in attack.

In their second group match, Ralf Rangnick’s side created only 0.5 expected goals and 0.05 post-shot xG, per FotMob. Only one of six shots found the target.

Now, Austria takes on a superior defense to Argentina. Tactically, Spain directly counters Argentina’s ball-moving strategy with the best midfield trio in the tournament.

The matchup helps create a potential sell-high spot on Austria. In its final group match, the attack scored three goals against Algeria, matching its total against Jordan.

Those matches mean next to nothing for this fixture. Plus, in the event Austria scores an unlikely goal, it likely tries to sit in deep and force Spain to break down its defense.

Here’s the optimistic view of Austria: it shut down Argentina’s attack. Go back to the 2024 Euros, and bettors will find decent defensive metrics as a market underdog.

Argentina created only 1.6 expected goals from open play against Austria. By post-shot xG, the World Cup holders barely cleared 1.5.

At the 2024 Euros, Austria held France to a 1-0 result in the group stage. France ran a bit unlucky in the match, but the teams still combined for only 2.89 xG.

Austria contributed 0.76 xG and 1.5 post-shot xG. However, I rate the Spanish defense ahead of France.

The unit similarly held tough against the Netherlands. Later in the group stage, Ronald Koeman’s attack scored twice off 1.76 xG and 1.36 post-shot xG.

With Spain under 2.5 goals priced at , I predict this round of 32 fixture finishes under 2.5 goals on Thursday.