Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Spain vs Belgium prediction for their quarterfinal matchup in Los Angeles.
Spain vs Belgium: World Cup Odds
Belgium vs Spain Prediction
Based on Spain’s impressive defensive record and Belgium’s poor defensive performance against Senegal, my Spain vs Belgium prediction is the Spain Moneyline (-160).
The quarterfinal, in my opinion, offers an instant sell-high opportunity on Belgium. Sure, they’re coming off a big win, but the US produced defensive errors that handed Belgium a win.
What will not translate from the round of 16 to the quarters is Belgium’s attack.
Rudi Garcia’s unit cleared 3.5 post-shot expected goals against the US. It’s the first time they’ve achieved that feat since the group stage against New Zealand.
Spain has yet to allow over one expected goal through its first five matches. Portugal, a far superior attack to Belgium, amassed only 0.63 xG and 0.9 post-shot xG.
By current soccer ELO ratings, Belgium trails Portugal by eight spots in the rankings. It should lead to a significant decline in offensive production.
While Belgium scored two late goals against Senegal, it won’t repeat that against the Euro winners. Spain’s midfield strength allows the UEFA side to limit chances from a positive state.
What will change from the USA-Belgium match is how the Belgians look defensively. After all, Friday’s match marks the first time all tournament they’ll close a market underdog.
Senegal (#23 in the ELO ratings) qualifies as the most difficult opponent for Belgium so far. The African outfit scored twice inside an hour and notched 2.86 xG in regular time.
Five of Senegal’s six big scoring chances came inside the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
While Spain looked sluggish in attack against Portugal, the matchup must earn consideration. Portugal possesses strength at both fullback positions to mitigate how Spain hopes to attack.
Before that match, Spain scored three against Austria in the round of 32. Luis de la Fuente’s side hit 2.8 expected goals, four big chances and 2.2 post-shot xG.
Those factors lead me to predict another win for the pre-tournament favorites at the conclusion of regular time.
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