Spain vs Portugal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Spain vs Portugal prediction for their round of 16 meeting in Dallas.

Spain vs Portugal: World Cup Odds

Spain vs Portugal: Anytime Goal Odds

Check back later for Spain vs Portugal anytime goalscorer odds from BetMGM.

Portugal vs Spain Prediction

Based on Portugal’s lucky come-from-behind win against Croatia and Spain’s defensive record so far, my Spain vs Portugal prediction is the Spain Moneyline (-115).

First off, bettors should place nearly no stock in last year’s Nations League final. Portugal played a midfielder at right back before a second-half sub, and Spain played a rotated defense.

If there’s a unit that’s bound for regression in this match, it’s the Portugal attack.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s penalty began a second half charge against Croatia in the round of 32. Outside that penalty kick, Portugal created next to nothing against a bad unit.

Including Goncalo Ramos’ winner, Portugal scored one non-penalty goal off 0.4 non-penalty xG. By post-shot xG, Ramos produced a 0.53 effort, the only one north of 0.15 in the match.

Only two matches ago, Portugal struggled to create chances against Colombia.

Their 0.93 xG tally came off 13 shots, with only two attempts clearing 0.2 xG. By post-shot xG, Portugal mustered only 0.47 goals.

Now they’re running into a strong Spanish defense that hasn’t allowed a goal. Albeit against some lower-level competition, Spain has yet to allow over 0.2 psxG in a match.

At the 2024 Euros, only Germany and France cleared one expected goal against La Furia Roja. Portugal simply lacks the attacking threat that those fellow UEFA sides bring against Spain.

Defensively, Portugal owns a misleading record. They’ve conceded only twice through four matches but have been really lucky against Colombia and Croatia.

Those two teams combined for a single goal. However, Colombia failed to score off 1.7 xG while Croatia scored once off 1.3 expected goals, per FotMob.

Spain offers a similar profile to Colombia. Both deploy 4-3-3 formations with strong midfields to break up transition play. In attack, Lamine Yamal offers a greater threat than Luis Diaz.

It leads me to believe Spain, off a very easy win, exposes the Portuguese backline. Accordingly, I predict the favorites will take all three points and reach the quarterfinals.