- Uruguay is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against Cape Verde.
- Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0 despite allowing over two expected goals in Atlanta.
- My Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction is Cape Verde Under 0.5 (-115).
After a shocking 0-0 draw against Spain, Cape Verde heads to Miami to face Uruguay.
The World Cup debutants closed a 2.5-goal underdog against World Cup co-favorites Spain. Against the odds, they captured a 0-0 draw despite allowing over two expected goals.
Uruguay plays its opening match against Saudi Arabia. With a win, the South American outfit would take the lead in Group H.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde: World Cup Odds
Cape Verde vs Uruguay Prediction
Based on Uruguay’s strong defensive metrics and Cape Verde’s lack of attacking threat, my Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction is Cape Verde Under 0.5 Goals (-115).
We should all applaud Cape Verde’s performance against Spain. Drawing as a sizable favorite is no small feat, but how they reached that outcome needs to receive acknowledgement.
Cape Verde held only 26% of the ball against La Furia Roja. They attempted only six shots, finding the target once in the 91st minute.
It’s going to leave them tired for a trip to Miami. They’ll go from playing in the comforts of Atlanta’s domed stadium to playing outside in brutal heat and humidity.
For the Cape Verde attack, the task remains a big one. Uruguay comes close to matching Spain’s defensive quality, as it showed at the 2024 Copa America tournament.
In its first five matches, Uruguay surrendered only 2.9 expected goals. Three of those five games came against teams 27th or better in the ELO ratings (Cape Verde ranks 64th).
Over 18 World Cup qualifying matches, Uruguay surrendered only 12 goals. Four of those 12 came against Brazil, Argentina and Colombia.
Market movement also supported Saudi Arabia finishing under this benchmark against Uruguay. Opening odds priced Saudi Arabia at -110 to finish under 0.5 before moving to -120.
Those factors lead me to predict Cape Verde finishes under this benchmark for the second straight match.
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