- USA is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Australia.
- The USMNT beat Australia 2-1 in an October 2025 friendly, their only meeting.
- My USA vs Australia prediction is the Australia Team Total Under 0.5 (+120).
The USMNT heads to Seattle for its second Group D match against Australia.
In their opening match against Paraguay, the United States delivered an outstanding performance. Up 3-0 inside halftime, they ultimately won 4-1.
Australia also won its opening match by a 2-0 margin over Turkey. Entering the matchup against the USMNT, the Socceroos sit second in Group D.
Check out the World Cup odds and my USA vs Australia prediction.
USA vs Australia: World Cup Odds
Australia vs USA Prediction
Assuming Chris Richards starts for the United States against Australia, my USA vs Australia prediction is the Australia Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (+120).
Australia found the opening goal against Team USA during their October friendly. But the circumstances around their success must be considered.
First, Mauricio Pochettino sent out a Starting XI without defensive midfielder Tyler Adams and left wing back Antonee Robinson.
The inclusion of both players, along with a presumed Richards start, should see improved results from an already strong output.
Australia generated only eight attacking touches inside the box for the match. A single big scoring chance stemmed from some lucky bounces off a throw-in.
For the entire match, Australia created only 0.95 expected goals.
From that point forward, Australia struggled to create chances. Over the five matches following the USA friendly, Australia created more than 1.05 expected goals once.
That success came against Curacao, one of the weakest defenses in the World Cup.
Plus, they’ll take on a USMNT defense that has placed itself into competition against the world’s best attacks. It helps explain why the USMNT hasn’t kept a clean sheet since last September.
But I’m not concerned with their performances against Belgium, Portugal and Germany for this match. Rather, I’m focused on the matches against Uruguay and Senegal.
In both games, the USA conceded from 4-0 up and 2-0 up. In competition against a team that wants to defend, I’ll be surprised if the USA takes a big lead.
Those factors lead me to predict the USMNT ends its bad defensive run against Australia.
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