- USA is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Paraguay.
- In World Cup qualifying, Paraguay finished level on points with Brazil and Colombia.
- My USA vs Paraguay prediction is Paraguay Double Chance (-130).
Team USA begins its World Cup campaign from Los Angeles against Paraguay.
Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT starts as the favorites to win Group D. They’ll aim to end their poor lead-in form in recent friendlies, losing to both Portugal and Belgium.
Paraguay qualified with the same number of points as Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay. Under manager Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay dropped all three points only once in competitive play.
Check out the World Cup odds and my USA vs Paraguay prediction.
USA vs Paraguay: World Cup Odds
Paraguay vs USA Prediction
Based on Paraguay’s impressive results under Alfaro and their defensive record against good attacks, my USA vs Paraguay prediction is Paraguay Double Chance (-130).
If I’m viewing this match objectively, the gap between these teams is exaggerated.
Read More: Double Chance Bet Explained in Soccer Betting
The USA recently beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly. However, both teams deployed different personnel compared to competitive matches.
Paraguay has lost three of its last five – all friendlies – after reeling off an impressive qualifying run.
In Paraguay’s first six qualifying matches, the South American nation won five points from a possible 30. After a horrific Copa America run, Alfaro took over as manager.
In the next 12 qualifying matches, Paraguay earned 23 points while losing only once. That failure came on the road against Brazil, a narrow 1-0 defeat.
But Paraguay simultaneously beat Brazil and Argentina at home. Alfaro’s side also won four points from six against Uruguay while picking up a point against Colombia.
Defensively, Paraguay offers a ton of resistance. Brazil managed only 1.5 expected goals in their June ‘25 meeting. Only two teams cleared 1.5 xG in their last 12 matches.
For the USA to take all three points, it likely correlates with an offensive explosion. They’ll also have to prove to me the defense can hold up outside of Chris Richards.
Paraguay’s attacking metrics against superior opposition are also encouraging.
The attack, led by Diego Gomez and Miguel Almiron, notched two xG against Colombia and 1.3 against Uruguay.
Pair those metrics with Paraguay’s ability to defend, and it would be the underdog or nothing here.
USA vs Paraguay Public Betting Data
| Moneyline | % of Bets | % of Money |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 88% | 90% |
| Draw | 6% | 3% |
| Paraguay | 6% | 7% |
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