- The USMNT is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Turkey.
- Since the 2022 World Cup, the USMNT is 0-2-7 (W-D-L) against UEFA sides.
- My USA vs Turkey prediction is Turkey Draw, No Bet (+175) against a rotated US lineup.
Mauricio Pochettino takes the USMNT to Los Angeles for its final group match against Turkey.
The United States dispatched Australia 2-0 on Matchday 2 as a -165 favorite in Seattle. After Turkey fell 1-0 to Paraguay, the USMNT secured a Group D win due to head-to-head edges over Australia and Paraguay.
Turkey’s loss against Paraguay officially eliminated them from the tournament. Due to head-to-head losses against both Paraguay and Australia, the UEFA side cannot finish third.
Check out the World Cup odds and my USA vs Turkey prediction.
USA vs Turkey: World Cup Odds
Turkey vs USA Prediction
Based on the USMNT securing a group win after Matchday 2 and likely key absences for Matchday 3, my USA vs Turkey prediction is Turkey Draw, No Bet (+175).
Read More: Draw No Bet Meaning in Soccer Betting
Presumably, the USMNT will rest key players against Turkey. After notching head-to-head wins over Paraguay and Australia, the USA won the group.
Key to this match are two factors: yellow card accumulation and injuries. Regarding the latter, zero reason exists for Mauricio Pochettino to risk Christian Pulisic against Turkey.
Four other players are likely to miss the match due to yellow card accumulation risk.
If any of Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams or Folarin Balogun pick up a card, they miss the round of 32.
Bettors will likely see all five players rotated out of the Starting XI against Turkey.
For Turkey, the motivation will be to avoid losing all three group matches. On Matchday 2 against Paraguay, the attack ran extremely unlucky against a 10-man team for a half.
Expected goals finished 2.2-0.3 in Turkey’s favor. Even in the opening half, Turkey recorded a 0.53-0.12 expected goals edge, despite allowing a goal inside five minutes.
Late last year, Turkey played a rotated USMNT in a friendly on US soil. Despite conceding inside the opening 60 seconds, Turkey came from behind to win 2-1.
Those factors lead me to predict Turkey, at minimum, avoids defeat on Matchday 3 in Los Angeles.
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