How Weather, Travel Will Impact the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup introduces a few new factors that will impact how bettors approach World Cup odds.

First is the tournament expansion from 32 to 48 teams. But because of the host nations, it’s also worth considering the temperatures and travel angles for these teams.

All 48 teams selected a home base for the tournament. They’ll travel to each group game from that training base before returning to home base after the match.

According to a recent study, it results in a disproportionate distribution of miles logged among teams. Additionally, teams face different climates based on where games are played.

For me, this added knowledge adds an extra layer to evaluating the games. Let’s dive into how I’m applying it for the initial round of the tournament.

How Travel Will Impact the 2026 World Cup

If England is to end its lengthy World Cup drought, it will come in the face of extreme travel.

The Three Lions selected Kansas City as its training base. One problem with that – Thomas Tuchel’s side doesn’t play any of its group games in Kansas City.

Its shortest travel comes on Matchday 1. England heads from Kansas City to Dallas for a meeting with fellow Euro side Croatia.

But then it’s a visit to Boston to face Ghana and a return trip to Kansas City. For its final group match, England heads back east to MetLife Stadium to play Panama.

Only Curacao and Austria face higher mileage counts in the group stage.

It’s not to say bettors should blindly bet against England. But if the Three Lions continue to see lofty spreads, the potential fatigue could lead to closer matches.

The initial report also fails to account for potential knockout ties. If World Cup group odds hold, England could face knockout ties against Mexico in Mexico City and Brazil in Miami.

Even if England survives the former, traveling from altitude to extreme heat in Miami is no easy feat.

At the other end of the spectrum, some teams benefit from light travel. Mexico, as a host country, leaves its training city once. It’s a short 952-kilometer journey to Guadalajara.

Team USA also earns a light travel schedule as a host country. The USMNT will train in Irvine before playing two of its three group matches in Los Angeles.

Lastly, some games feature what I’m calling a “travel advantage.” This comes where one nation travels to play another closer to the latter’s host venue.

South Korea vs Czech Republic offers one such example. Here are the remaining qualifiers with the burdened team listed first:

• Ecuador vs Cote D’Ivoire (Philadelphia)
• Portugal vs Democratic Republic of Congo (Houston)
• Sweden vs Tunisia (Guadalajara)
• Japan vs Tunisia (Guadalajara)
• Mexico vs Czech Republic (Mexico City)
• Colombia vs Portugal (Miami)
• Turkey vs USA (Los Angeles)
• Norway vs France (Boston)
• Austria vs Algeria (Kansas City)
• Democratic Republic of Congo vs Uzbekistan (Atlanta)
• Democratic Republic of Congo vs Colombia (Guadalajara)
• Tunisia vs Netherlands (Kansas City)
• Japan vs Sweden (Dallas)
• England vs Ghana (Boston)
• Ghana vs Panama (Toronto)
• Croatia vs Panama (Toronto)
• Qatar vs Canada (Vancouver)
• Switzerland vs Canada (Vancouver)
• Senegal vs Norway (East Rutherford)
• Curacao vs Cote D’Ivoire (Philadelphia)

This is not to say every team listed first is going to fail in these matches. But it’s worth incorporating when evaluating the odds.

How Weather Will Impact the 2026 World Cup

The second element I’m incorporating into match evaluation is the heat.

Domed stadiums protect teams from this in some cases. Dallas, Houston and Atlanta all feature indoor venues, so teams will not play in extreme temperatures.

But other teams will not enjoy the same privilege. For example, Miami, Monterrey, East Rutherford and Kansas City all could see rising temperatures, especially for midday matches.

Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia should offer an initial hint at how these teams fare in extreme temperatures. As of June 11, the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s at kickoff.

Brazil vs Morocco on Matchday 1 also qualifies as what I’d call extreme temperatures. The two Group C sides face off at 6 p.m. ET with temperatures projected for the high 80s.

Any match projected for temperatures in the mid- to high-80s is going to earn a look at the match total.

Generally speaking, unders have performed better at the World Cup. In 2022, 53% of matches finished under 2.5 goals. In 2002 and 2006, under 2.5 goals hit at a 58% clip or higher.

Most teams aren’t used to playing in this weather, so production might decrease. It may simultaneously give the underdog a better chance to keep games close.

At the other end of the spectrum, you might see increased chances at more temperate venues.

San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Toronto and Vancouver likely offer a higher chance for goals compared to Miami.

While each match remains unique, I’d exercise caution when supporting game or team total overs when heat plays a role.