World Cup Sleeper Picks: Two Longshots Capable of Deep Run

Going by historical trends, lead-in form for World Cup teams can tell a lot about potential.

According to a study done by the Athletic before 2022, losing finalists and semifinalists showed decent form in the five preceding matches.

The trend subsequently held in 2022. Argentina came through as World Cup winners with a flawless 5-0-0 (W-D-L) record in the build-up.

Semifinalists Morocco caught the world by surprise, though. The Atlas Lions, in hindsight, profiled well as the sleeper pick – the African side finished 4-1-0 (W-D-L) before 2022.

Purely by current form, I discovered a few potential sleepers currently underrated in the World Cup odds.

2 Best World Cup Sleeper Picks for 2026

Turkiye (+6600 to Win: +1000 to Reach Semis)

Good news first: whichever team comes through as Group D winners face an easy path to the quarterfinals.

It’s a sign of optimism with the USMNT. However, they’re running into a sneaky good Turkish side in the opening stage.

Over its last five matches, Turkiye posted a 4-1-0 (W-D-L) record. The lone shortcoming came against World Cup favorites Spain in a 2-2 draw.

Still, Turkiye finished only 0.55 post-shot expected goals behind Spain last November.

Should Turkiye win the group, it gets a third-place finisher from Groups B, E, F, I or J. Only Group I – featuring France, Norway and Senegal – poses a massive risk.

If seeds hold, Turkiye would next get the winner of Group G, likely Belgium, Egypt or Iran. A win would (presumably) set up a rematch with Spain in the quarterfinals.

We just saw Turkiye, the 14th-ranked club in world football’s Elo ratings, compete with Spain. At minimum, the talent exists for this UEFA side to reach the quarters.

Japan (+6600 to Win: +900 to Reach Semis)

Electing for a surprise darkhorse from the prior World Cup is always dangerous. In a sense, the secret is out on Japan.

Although the path to the quarters or semis is littered with quality opposition, Japan showed it can hang with the World Cup powers.

The Blue Samurai will enter the 2026 World Cup having won five straight matches. That includes friendly victories over England and Brazil.

Since the calendar turned to 2025, Japan dropped all three points only twice.

Presumably, Japan will face either Brazil or Morocco in the round of 32.

If they win the group over the Netherlands and get through that match, they’d face a quarterfinal against the second-place team from Group A or B.

Japan then looks at a quarterfinal against the winner from Group E or I. In a vacuum, I’d expect France as the opponent.

Given Japan’s recent results, the Asian side profiles well as an underdog in any match. For a team that lost on penalties in the 2022 round of 16, the prices here are intriguing.