- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Rays
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Rays starting pitcher: Javier Guerra
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-105) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Yankees vs Rays Over/Under is 13 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 18-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 21-13 ATS.
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | O 13 -1100 | -115 |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | U 13 +700 | -105 |
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+8.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+7.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.15 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 32 games (+17.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +110 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 34 games (+16.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 17-17 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 1.75% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -2.62% ROI
- 11-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -35.47% ROI
- 22-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 26.44% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 21-13 against the Run Line (+9.3 Units / 24.47% ROI).
- 27-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.8 Units / 26.82% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 8.78% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -19.09% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
60% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .476 (177 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .701 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 29% (24/82) against Gerrit Cole this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (3-for-30) against Gerrit Cole with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javy Guerra has walked 12 of 53 batters (23%) this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Javy Guerra has a strike rate of just 54% (108/199) this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Javy Guerra has walked 6 of 23 batters (26%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Javy Guerra has a strikeout rate of just 11% (6 SO in 53 PAs) this season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 21-35 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Yankees are 13-52 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 33-31 (.516) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Rays are just 0-2 (.000) when underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Rays are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Rays are 12-111 (.098) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 197 walks in 1,826 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 35 walks in 277 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .193 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Yankees are batting just .214 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .583 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .954 (264 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Rays hitters are slugging .523 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Rays hitters are slugging .550 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Yankees have allowed 0.82 runs per game (28/34) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.34.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Rays pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 104 of 1,747 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 925 of 13,172 batters (7%) since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Forearm, D15
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Oswald Peraza (Yankees): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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