- The Alabama Crimson Tide are a -4 point favorite vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Alabama vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
Alabama (4-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (4-0) on Oct. 3 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-145).
The Alabama vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Alabama | -4 -145 | 59.5 -110 | -235 |
| Mississippi State | +4 +110 | 59.5 -120 | +190 |
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 56.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Alabama Best Bets Today
- Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Alabama have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 15 games (+1.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets Today
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Alabama Crimson Tide is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Alabama is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 6.51% ROI
- Alabama is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Alabama is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 91.95% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 10.05% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.15 Units / -3.45% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI
Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Alabama is undefeated (8-0) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .516
Alabama is 11-1 (.917) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .602
Alabama is undefeated (13-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .683
Alabama was 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama
Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
Mississippi State was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443
Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs gained 423 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 11.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Alabama had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-2nd-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among SEC defenses.
Alabama had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-2nd-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Alabama’s TEs has gained 1,464 yards on 124 receptions (11.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2024 season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends
Alabama QBs have 7 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Alabama have thrown 8 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.7
Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1
Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1
Mississippi State’s TEs gained 423 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 11.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State WRs have caught 13 touchdown passes this season– most among SEC Teams
Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends
Alabama has allowed first downs on 8% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– best in the SEC; Average: 20%
Alabama has allowed first downs on 18% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season– best in the SEC; Average: 32%
Alabama allowed just 10.0 yards per completion (2,369 yards/236 completions) last season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.7
Alabama has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 5 of 112 attempts (4%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%
Alabama allowed 10 rushing TDs on 487 carries (48.7 Carries Per TD) last season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 23.2
Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State allowed 216.9 rushing yards per game (2,603/12) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 131.4
Mississippi State averaged a sack every 34.1 pass attempts (341 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.1
Mississippi State has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS
Mississippi State allowed 456.4 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 341.3
Mississippi State tackled opponents for a loss on just 52 of 523 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
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