- The Arkansas State Red Wolves are a -7 point favorite vs. the Southern Miss Golden Eagles
- Arkansas State vs. Southern Mississippi Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Arkansas State (2-4) visit M.M. Roberts Stadium to take on Southern Mississippi (1-4) on Oct. 17 in Hattiesburg, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Arkansas State vs. Southern Mississippi Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Southern Mississippi Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | -7 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -250 |
| Southern Mississippi | +7 -112 | 62.5 -108 | +210 |
Arkansas State vs Southern Mississippi Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Arkansas State will win this game with 60.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Southern Mississippi Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets Today
- Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+3.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+1.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Southern Mississippi Best Bets Today
- Southern Miss has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Southern Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Southern Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Southern Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas State Red Wolves is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -4.57% ROI
- Arkansas State is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Arkansas State is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Southern Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Southern Miss Golden Eagles is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Southern Mississippi is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Southern Mississippi is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Southern Mississippi is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Southern Mississippi
Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388
Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Southern Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Southern Miss was winless (0-11) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385
Southern Miss was winless (0-11) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Southern Miss was winless (0-4) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Southern Miss was winless (0-4) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Southern Mississippi
Southern Miss’s offense threw for 3,459 passing yards in 13 games (266.1 YPG) last season — T-26th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Southern Miss’s QBs threw for 3,459 passing yards in 13 games (266.1 YPG) last season — T-25th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Southern Miss’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.8% of 454 attempts last season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 507 attempts last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Southern Miss’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Southern Miss’s defense has allowed just 11.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs averaged 27.2 targets per game last season — 7th-highest among FBS WRs. Southern Miss’s defense allowed 14.1 receptions per game to WRs last season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State Skill Players had 8 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State threw for 4 TDs last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Offenses
Arkansas State QBs had 5 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State QBs had 8 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 507 attempts last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Southern Miss’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Southern Mississippi Offensive Stats & Trends
Southern Miss QBs had 6 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Southern Miss were sacked on 23% of pass attempts (14/61) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%
Southern Miss Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 23.6 receptions (165 Rec/7 TDs) last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7
Southern Miss WRs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Southern Miss have thrown 0 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.7
Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 20 of 241 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 20 of 241 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (25 completions/34 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State has averaged a sack every 44.0 pass attempts (132 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
Arkansas State allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Southern Mississippi Defensive Stats & Trends
Southern Miss forced 3 fumbles on 474 carries (158.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7
Southern Miss did not record a sack (49 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
Southern Miss forced 3 fumbles on 474 carries (158.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
Southern Miss allowed 379.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 151.8
Southern Miss allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 35 of their 474 carries (7%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%
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