- The Kent State Golden Flashes are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the Ball State Cardinals
- Ball State vs. Kent State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Ball State (1-2) visit Dix Stadium to take on Kent State (1-2) on Sep. 26 in Kent, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Kent State Golden Flashes are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Ball State vs. Kent State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Kent State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -120 | +138 |
| Kent State | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | -165 |
Ball State vs Kent State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kent State will win this game with 56.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ball State Cardinals and the Kent State Golden Flashes, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Kent State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kent State will cover the spread with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)
Kent State Best Bets Today
- Kent State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Kent State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+0.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- Kent State has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- Kent State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- Kent State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State Cardinals is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Ball State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Ball State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Kent State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kent State Golden Flashes is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Kent State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 23.81% ROI
- Kent State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Kent State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Kent State
Ball State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .390
Ball State is 3-8 (.273) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .438
Ball State was 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Ball State was 1-4 (.200) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 12th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424
Kent State: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Kent State was winless (0-9) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Kent State was winless (0-11) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385
Kent State was winless (0-12) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Kent State was winless (0-12) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .390
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Kent State
Kent State gained 2,365 yards on 163 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 8th-best among FBS skill players. Ball State’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Kent State’s WRs gained 1,900 yards on 119 receptions (16.0 YPR) last season — T-6th-best among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Kent State’s RBs has rushed for 1,283 yards on 361 carries (just 3.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — worst among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense have allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State has averaged just 9.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS skill players. Kent State’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs had just 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Kent State’s defense allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State had just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-15th-worst among FBS skill players. Kent State’s defense allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State have been sacked on 18% of pass attempts (49/278) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%
Ball State have been sacked 49 times this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.0
Ball State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (49/278) last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
Ball State TEs were targeted 6.7 times per game (80/12) in the 1st half last season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9
Kent State Offensive Stats & Trends
Kent State Skill Players averaged 24.1 yards per reception (313 yards/13 catches) with 4-6 yards to go last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3
Kent State WRs averaged 24.1 yards per reception (313 yards/13 catches) with 4-6 yards to go last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2
Kent State RBs averaged just 2.4 Yards per Carry (140 yards/58 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Kent State have averaged 17.9 yards per completion (1,040 yards/58 completions) on 1st down this season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2
Kent State RBs averaged 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (153 yards / 60 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State did not record a sack (50 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Ball State did not record a sack (50 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Ball State allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 28 of their 404 carries (7%) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 4%
Kent State Defensive Stats & Trends
Kent State allowed 240.9 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season– worst in FBS; Average: 144.7
Kent State allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Kent State intercepted 4 of 344 attempts (86.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.1
Kent State allowed 18 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Kent State allowed 264.9 rushing yards per game (3,179/12) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 151.7
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