Iowa vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Michigan Wolverines are a -5.5 point favorite vs. the Iowa Hawkeyes
• Iowa vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
• TV Channel: CBS

Iowa (3-0) visit Michigan Stadium to take on Michigan (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Michigan Wolverines are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Iowa vs. Michigan Over/Under is 37.5 total points.

Bet now on Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Iowa vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Iowa vs Michigan Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan Wolverines, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa vs Michigan Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 55.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes and all games with BetMGM

Iowa Best Bets Today

• Iowa has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.35 Units / 1% ROI)
• Iowa have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Iowa has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 3% ROI)
• Iowa have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets Today

• Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 1% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa Hawkeyes is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Iowa is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.13% ROI
• Iowa is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Iowa is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan Wolverines is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Michigan is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 6.83% ROI
• Michigan is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Michigan is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Iowa was 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Iowa was 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Iowa is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .651

Iowa is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .615

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .479

Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .420

Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .606

Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .603

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. Michigan

Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed just 172.7 passing yards per game last season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed just 172.7 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s QBs threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Iowa’s defense allowed just 172.7 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa gained 1,856 yards on 179 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) last season — T-5th-worst among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa gained 1,856 yards on 179 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) last season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s WRs gained 1,074 yards on 97 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) last season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa TEs had just one touchdown on 58 receptions last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Iowa Skill Players have no touchdowns on 22 receptions in close and late situations this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.2

Iowa RBs averaged 21.2 yards per reception (127 yards/6 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1

Iowa Skill Players have averaged just 13.8 receptions per game (179/13) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.7

Iowa WRs have averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (273 yards/30 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.2

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.1

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Michigan WRs averaged just 7.8 yards per reception (372 yards/48 catches) in the 1st half last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

Michigan WRs averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (401 yards/46 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.6

Iowa Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 406 carries (101.5 Carries Per TD) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.5

Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 406 carries (101.5 Carries Per TD) last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 26

Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Iowa did not record a sack (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.3

Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan has allowed 2.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (228 yards / 100 touches) in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Michigan has sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Michigan has allowed 2.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (228 yards / 100 touches) in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.6

Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 72 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Bet now on Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes and all games with BetMGM

More College Football Betting at BetMGM

College football betting is available at the online sportsbook throughout the season.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Indiana football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State odds this week, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!