- The Oregon Ducks are a -11 point favorite vs. the Michigan Wolverines
- Michigan vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
Michigan (5-4) visit Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon (6-3) on Nov. 14 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Oregon Ducks are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -11 (-118).
The Michigan vs. Oregon Over/Under is 40.5 total points.
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Michigan vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan | +11 -112 | 40.5 -140 | +340 |
| Oregon | -11 -118 | 40.5 +105 | -450 |
Michigan vs Oregon Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 80.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Michigan Wolverines and the Oregon Ducks, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan vs Oregon Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan Best Bets Today
- Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 30% ROI)
Oregon Best Bets Today
- Oregon has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.73 Units / 40% ROI)
- Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+1.90 Units / 2% ROI)
- Oregon has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan Wolverines is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.67 Units / -36.81% ROI).
- Michigan is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.68 Units / -10.84% ROI
- Michigan is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
- Michigan is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 47.95% ROI
Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Oregon Ducks is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.52 Units / -15.17% ROI).
- Oregon is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.7 Units / -37.2% ROI
- Oregon is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27% ROI
- Oregon is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.61 Units / -36.43% ROI
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon
Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515
Michigan is 11-1 (.917) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2024 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .699
Michigan is 10-2 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .642
Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Oregon was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Oregon was undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Oregon was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429
Oregon was 10-1 (.909) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .442
Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Oregon
Oregon’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 435 attempts last season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 9.6% of attempts last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Oregon’s TEs had 86 receptions in 15 games (5.7 per game) last season — best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense allowed 20.8 receptions per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Oregon’s WRs gained 2,211 yards on 159 receptions (13.9 YPR) last season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense allowed just 11.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed just 157.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.
Michigan’s QBs threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense allowed just 157.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.
Michigan’s offense threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed just 157.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (11 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.4
Michigan WRs averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (401 yards/46 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.8
Michigan WRs averaged just 7.3 yards per reception (169 yards/23 catches) on 1st down last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.5
Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1
Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends
Oregon WRs have averaged 17.8 yards per reception (196 yards/11 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.0
Oregon QBs have 36 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
Oregon TEs have 30 receptions for 20 or more yards since the 2024 season– most among Big Ten Teams
Oregon RBs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Oregon Skill Players averaged 17.4 yards per reception (279 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.2
Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 305 carries (76.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.2
Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on 24 of 103 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 14%.
Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on 24 of 103 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.
Michigan has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 305 carries (76.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 24.6
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2
Oregon Defensive Stats & Trends
Oregon allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (3 completions/10 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 59%
Oregon has sacked opposing QBs just once on 75 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.4
Oregon did not record a sack (48 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Oregon allowed opponents to catch just 226 of 417 passes (54% Reception Pct) last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 64%
Oregon has sacked opposing QBs just once on 75 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15.5
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